Three-way fray for FM104

One More Thing: The race for FM104 appears to be at least a three-way contest

One More Thing:The race for FM104 appears to be at least a three-way contest. Vienna Investments and Liberty Global both met FM104 management this week and Belfast-based broadcaster UTV also remains in the running.

One informed source described UTV as a "strong contender" in what is turning out to be something more akin to a sprint than a marathon, given the speed with which Communicorp is keen to close a deal.

With the bell about to sound for the final lap, TV3 and others appear to have trailed off.

It now boils down to two things: price and the ability to execute a deal quickly to meet Denis O'Brien's desire to get his purchase of Today FM and Highland Radio across the line by the end of the year.

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UTV should be the clear favourite. It already has five licences in the Republic and adding FM104 to its portfolio would make it a serious player in Dublin. There are obvious cost synergies that neither Vienna nor Liberty could extract.

UTV, however, tends not to overpay for assets. The mooted €45-€50 million price tag is 10-11 times FM104's projected earnings for the current year. That's a hefty multiple in the current economic climate.

Both Vienna and Liberty might be willing to go the extra mile in terms of price to gain a foothold in Irish commercial radio.

Vienna was the underbidder to O'Brien when Emap was selling the three stations during the summer. Its backers are FM104's previous owners and they know the management team well.

Vienna is also part of the 4FM consortium that has been shortlisted for the multicity radio licence.

Liberty Global is coming late to the race. It doesn't have the benefit of having already had a close looks at the books from the earlier sale process. The price tag doesn't seem to be an obstacle but its desire for a bit more time to weigh up the deal might not fit with O'Brien's timeframe.

Liberty Global's chief strategy officer is Irishman Shane O'Neill, an influential voice within the Colorado-based listed media group. O'Neill is obviously keen to do business here. Liberty Global has dropped about €900 million in Ireland buying and upgrading the NTL and Chorus cable networks. It recently became a substantial investor in David Harvey's City Channel, and plans to launch similar local television stations in its other European franchise areas.

O'Neill has also just taken a seat on the advisory committee of the National Treasury Management Agency.

The expectation is that UTV and Vienna will battle it out in the home stretch, but don't rule out Liberty coming with a late run.