Trade figures key to health of the dollar

This Week: With the dollar rising and oil subsiding, investors will examine closely data out of the United States this week …

This Week: With the dollar rising and oil subsiding, investors will examine closely data out of the United States this week for indications that the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is doing enough to offset concerns about the world's largest economy.

The Fed may have indicated its willingness to use rates more aggressively to address inflationary threats but the market will also want to see evidence that the US economy is growing fast enough to ease its trade deficit. Trade data and figures for the flow of foreign capital into the economy, due this week, will hopefully provide some grounds for optimism.

Closer to home, the Irish Stock Exchange opens a new market that it hopes will provide a viable alternative for indigenous companies than an AIM listing in London. The exchange's previous record in trying to attract business from smaller companies leaves little room for optimism and it is somewhat depressing that it has managed to do little more than mirror the offer of a rival that has already had time to build a reputation in what is a larger market.

Monday

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Results: Genentech (Q1), GfK, Investor (Q1), M&C Saatchi, Pipex Comms, Venture Productions.

AGM: EBS Building Society, Investor.

Meetings: Eurogroup finance ministers meet with European central Bank president Jean Claude Trichet attending (Luxembourg); Cork Chamber of Commerce annual general meeting (Imperial Hotel, Cork); IBEC Dublin Region annual meeting (Burlington Hotel).

Indicators: Irish industrial production and turnover (Feb); British producer prices (Mar) and trade (Feb); German DIW index (Q1); French industrial production (Feb); Japanese bank lending (Mar).

Others: Traffic figures for British Airports Authority and Lufthansa.

Tuesday

Results: Abbott Labs (Q1), BNB Resources, Erste Bank, Fibernet (H1), Gannett (Q1), Invu, Lok N'Store (H1), Micronas (Q1), Moss Bros, Tesco, Thomson Intermedia, Tullow Oil.

AGM: Gambro, KPN, Volvo.

Meetings: Ecofin meeting (Luxembourg); Irish Association of Pension Funds annual investment conference on "The Great Pensions Debate" (Dublin Castle); Sage Ireland Business Conference 2005 and Exhibition (Maryborough House, Cork).

Indicators: US international trade (Feb), consumer sentiment (Apr) and federal budget (Mar); French trade balance (Feb); German wholesale prices (Mar).

Others: Irish Stock Exchange opens new Irish Enterprise Exchange market in effort to compete with London AIM; Marks & Spencer trading statement; Irish Recorded Music Association announces plans to sue illegal file sharers; International Energy Agency issues monthly oil market report; Traffic figures for Swiss.

Wednesday

Results: Advanced Micro Devices (Q1), Apple Computer (Q2), Bang & Olufsen (Q3), JJB Sports, Soco International.

AGM: Belgacom, ISS, SAS, SEB.

Meetings: Oireachtas Joint Committee on Transport discusses current operational issues and future strategic direction for Dublin, Shannon and Cork Airport with airport executives; Oireachtas Joint Committee on Finance and the Public Service meets Irish Banks Officials Association representatives to discuss loss of jabs and closure of branches at Bank of Ireland; ICT Expo (to Thurs); Institute of European Affairs discusses "What the Constitution for Europe Means for the Citizen" with Kalypso Nicholaidis, former adviser to Greek government and Oxford lecturer.

Indicators: Irish employment and earnings in banks, insurance and building societies (Q4); US retail sales (Mar); British unemployment (Mar) and average earnings (Feb); Italian industrial production (Feb).

Others: International Monetary Fund publishes spring 2005 World Economic Outlook.

Thursday

Results: Aegon (Q1), Austin Reed, Clearstream (H1), First Data (Q1), France Telecom (Q1), GTech (Q4), Iona Technologies (Q1), New York Times (Q1), PepsiCo (Q1), Sun Microsystems (Q3), Triplearc.

AGM: BP, Buhrmann, Nestlé, RAC, RWE, Schering, Skandia, Total (egm).

Meetings: Institute of Chartered Accountants in Ireland conference on corporate social responsibility addressed by the President, Mary McAleese (Radisson Hotel, Galway - to Sat); IBEC-National Roads Authority national roads conference (Dublin Castle).

Indicators: Euro-zone GDP (Q4); Irish capital assets in industry (Q4); US business inventories (Feb); Italian consumer prices (Mar); Japanese bankruptcies (Mar).

Others: Aer Lingus publishes annual results for 2004; European Central Bank publishes monthly bulletin; Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Micheál Martin at launch of Women in Science & Engineering Research Initiative; Archbishop of Dublin Most Rev, Diarmuid Martin publishes "Debt & Trade: Time to Make Connections"; Trading statements from Carphone Warehouse and GUS.

Friday

Results: Citigroup (Q1), General Electric (Q1), International Energy, Knight Ridder (Q1), LogicaCMG, Mattel (Q1), UKBetting, Wachovia (Q1).

AGM: Communisis, FLS, Gaming Insight (egm), Oce, Sulzer.

Meetings: IBEC Biennial Lunch addresses by European commissioner for the internal market and services Charlie McCreevy (Four Seasons Hotel).

Indicators: Irish retail sales (Feb) and industrial stocks (Q4); US industrial production (Mar), import/export prices (Mar), capital net flows (Feb), capacity utilisation (Mar) and Michigan sentiment survey (Apr); Italian EU trade (Feb); Japanese industrial production (Feb rev).

Others: Ireland's Student Entrepreneur Awards (Cork Institute of Technology).