Northern Ireland’s Finance Minister Máirtín Ó Muilleoir is set to face his first real test of post-Brexit nerves on Wednesday, on the day that the UK chancellor makes his Autumn Statement.
But it is not just Ó Muilleoir, about to celebrate six months in the job, who is likely to be feeling a little nervous. If you could catch a quick glance of any of his ministerial colleagues, including the North’s First Minister Arlene Foster, then by right they should all be looking a little anxious.
When UK chancellor Philip Hammond delivers his first Autumn Statement he will not only provide an update on the UK’s economic health and set out the government’s future spending priorities, he is also going to reveal to Ó Muilleoir and his ministerial colleagues just how much the Northern Ireland Executive will have to spend.
The Autumn Statement is a mini-budget of sorts, although it often provides fewer headlines than the budget itself, presented in March, when tax changes top the bill.
Brexit fallout
This year, however, could prove to be the exception. Not only will the Autumn Statement have to accommodate the debt burden but it also has to make room for the Brexit factor which, according to Hammond, will take the shape of a plan which will ensure that the “British economy is water-tight” to weather the fallout from Brexit.
The UK chancellor has left no one in any doubt that he is very aware of the growing number of forecasts predicting a major slowdown in economic growth next year – and what this might mean for the UK’s public finances.
For the North the outlook, in growth terms alone, is even worse than in the rest of the UK. According to PwC, Northern Irleland will be the slowest growing regional economy in the UK next year – with growth forecast at just 0.6 per cent. Responding to this, Ó Muilleoir has asked the UK chancellor for a “strong capital stimulus” to be included in the Autumn Statement for Northern Ireland.
That of course is not the only request on Ó Muilleoir’s wish list; he would also like the devolution of other fiscal powers to the North and further clarification over the issue of European funding and how it may be replaced in the future.
London calling
But whether Hammond has been listening above the clamour surrounding this year’s Autumn Statement and the loud requests from significant players such as the Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, who is also campaigning for fiscal devolution, remains to be seen.
Khan has argued that “London has the same population as Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland combined, but we have far less control over how our economy and public services are run”.
Northern Ireland businesses in particular are hoping that Hammond will not make earning a living more difficult – for either owners or employees – than it is at the moment and that he might even take steps to help them knowing, as a former businessman before he became a politician, what they are up against every day.
Firms in the North specifically want to see investment in jobs, in infrastructure and initiatives that will support business expansion. But aside from the buzzwords that everyone in the North is hoping to hear on Wednesday there is also one standout word that no one wants to hear – and that is austerity.
Ó Muilleoir will be hoping that Hammond will be willing to, as he describes it, take “his foot off the austerity pedal” and introduce new measures to stimulate the economy.
