US set for another quarter point rate rise

This Week: The US Federal Reserve will take the spotlight this week, with markets expecting another quarter point rate rise …

This Week: The US Federal Reserve will take the spotlight this week, with markets expecting another quarter point rate rise from the US central bank, while investors will look to euro-zone data for any hint of a rate cut.

At home, there will be figures on employment and the manufacturing sector though the trading statement from Independent News & Media is likely to be the more closely watched.

But the focus internationally will be on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where it will announce its latest decision on short-term interest rates. Another hike would take rates to 3.25 per cent from 1 per cent a year ago.

"A quarter point rise is very much in the market, it will not be a shock to the system but what will be interesting to see is the Fed's hints for policy and the language they will use," said David Brown, chief economist at Bear Sterns.

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US consumer confidence data, due tomorrow, will lead a heavy week of US data. The June consumer confidence index is expected to bounce up to 106 compared with 102.2 in the previous month, according to HSBC forecasts.

Germany's Ifo business climate index will also stand out, coming in after a recent survey from the ZEW institute showed confidence among German analysts and investors rose this month in the euro zone's largest economy. The index, one of Europe's most closely-watched economic indicators, is due on Monday and is expected to show its first improvement in five months, rising to 93.3 from 92.9 in May. - (Reuters)

Monday

Results: Beale (H1), Designer Vision, Nike (Q4), Northgate Information Solutions, Parkdean Holidays (H1).

AGM: Esso, Kiln, Securities Trust (EGM), Western Selection (EGM), WPP.

Meetings: Group of 10 central bankers bi-monthly meeting, and AGM at Bank for International Settlements (Geneva); Second annual Forbes CEO Forum in Europe (Paris).

Indicators: Euro-zone investment flows (Apr) and ECB current account (Apr); German Ifo index (Jun) and import prices (May); Japanese retail sales (May).

Tuesday

Results: Carpetright, Dobbies Garden Centres (H1), Domino Printing Science (H1), HMV, International Greetings, Porvair (H1), Profile Media, Rensburg Sheppards (H1), Sanctuary Group (H1), Stonemartin.

AGM: Alitalia, BNP Paribas, IFG, Shell.

Meetings: Chambers of Commerce of Ireland Air Transport Users' Group Airline of the Year awards (Davenport Hotel, Dublin).

Indicators: Euro-zone M3 data (May) and private lending (May); Irish industrial disputes analysis (Q1); US consumer confidence (Jun); French business climate (Jun); Italian business confidence (Jun); Japanese industrial production (May).

Others: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development publishes Employment Outlook 2005; Development publishes 2004 annual report.

Wednesday

Results: 3Com (Q4), General Mills (Q4), Monsanto (Q3), Oracle (Q4).

AGM: Altadis, Braemer Seascope, Cox Insurance Holdings,

Indicators: US GDP (Q1 final); British consumer credit (May), mortgage lending (May) and CBI distributive trades survey (Jun); French producer prices (May); Japanese manufacturing purchasing managers' index (Jun).

Others: Independent News & Media issues trading statement; European Commission is scheduled to decide the date by when Italy must get its deficit-to-GDP ratio back into line.

Thursday

Results: La Tasca, Red Hat (Q1), Reliance Security, Smith (DS), Xansa.

AGM: Bloomsbury Publishing, Creighton (EGM), Goshawk Insurance, Group4Securicor, Pernod Ricard (EGM), Scottish Mortgage, SR Pharma.

Meetings: US Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee meets.

Indicators: Euro-zone business climate (Jun), consumer sentiment (Jun), economic sentiment (Jun), industrial sentiment (Jun), services sentiment (Jun) and consumer prices (Jun); Irish Central Bank private sector credit (May), balance of international payments (Q1), industrial employment, earnings and hours worked (Q1) and employment and earnings in banking, insurance and building societies (Q1); US personal income/spenidng (May); British GDP (Q1); German unemployment (Jun); French GDP (Q1 revised); Italian consumer prices (Jun) and producer prices (May); Swiss consumer prices (Jun); Japanese housing starts (May), construction orders (May), household spending (May), unemployment (May), consumer prices (May) and Tankan survey (Q2).

Others: Competition Authority deadline for submissions on it preliminary report on the legal profession.

Friday

AGM: Atrium Underwriting, Gresham Computing, Umeco.

Indicators: Euro-zone unemployment (May) and purchasing managers' index (PMI) manufacturing (Jun); Irish unemployment (Jun) and NCB PMI manufacturing (Jun); US Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index (Jun), vehicle sales (Jun), construction spending and Michigan Sentiment Survey (Jun final); British PMI manufacturing (Jun); German PMI manufacturing (Jun); French PMI manufacturing (Jun); Italian PMI manufacturing (Jun).

Others: Britain assumes presidency of the European Union.