I started this week on the back foot. I carried forward a sleep deficit from a number of late nights last week, and continued my pale impression of Tara Palmer-Tomkinson's social diary by partying at the weekend too.
On Friday night a (female-only) bunch of us from the office hit the All Sports Cafe in Temple Bar. It was all very hip-hop and happening, although showing the Late Late on the television in the Ladies seemed at odds with the sporting theme. Since I was driving, I was drinking non-alcoholic beer which goes to prove that you don't need alcohol to enjoy yourself! I should have kept that in mind on Saturday.
Twenty of my relatives descended on the house for a party and, once I'd done the hostess part of handing around the M&S party-food, I decided that I could drink with abandon since I didn't have to drive anywhere. Not a great idea.
We didn't get to bed until about four in the morning and we were up fairly soon after that, courtesy of my nephews who had no interest in staying in bed themselves when they knew that there was leftover food downstairs. Sunday afternoon was childfree and partyfree, but I'd committed myself to playing in a badminton competition so that by the evening I had trouble putting one foot in front of the other. Every bone in my body ached, and that was with the benefit of the rehydrating Haliborange Ruby Orange Vitamin C tablets I'd been downing.
I hadn't really recovered by Monday morning and I wondered yet again why someone who is not a morning person could end up with a career that necessitates being in the office before 7.30 a.m.
And the more exhausted I am, the earlier I make it in - I'm so terrified of not waking up in time that I wake up every hour and so it is a relief when I actually do have to haul myself out of bed. So I was sitting at my desk by 7.15 a.m. sipping extra-strong coffee and feeling sorry for myself. The first port of call was - and is still - Asia, where their economic woes are beginning to be felt in more material ways. There were lots of stories on the screens about companies that had gone bankrupt. Last week, four companies in South Korea filed for bankruptcy or sought court assistance in rescheduling debts.
Altogether, this year 15,000 companies have sought bankruptcy protection. Now the banks are suffering liquidity problems which means that they are calling in loans and so making things even harder for anyone trying to keep a company solvent. Meanwhile, IMF assistance is available, but at a price.
South Korea has had a growth rate of about 8.6 per cent for the past 30 years now it is looking at something around 2 to 3 per cent. That will be felt in the unemployment numbers. The Korean government is trying to play hardball with the IMF, but when you don't have a lot to negotiate with, you're not exactly calling the shots.
Thailand has been having a hard time of it too. Its sovereign debt was downgraded in November and its inflation rate was the highest in 10 years, thanks to the currency devaluation in July. Now it's considering securitising its future rice revenues to provide financing for foreign currency debt. I think most of the Asian countries need to look to tourism and make those cheaper currencies work for them. There was (finally) slight cheer for the employees of Yamaichi Information Systems a unit of the broking house which closed last month. A US computer services company has hired the 600 Tokyo workers. At the same time, though, I hear that Murphy's stout is to get rid of the samurai in its Irish ad campaign. Is there no end to the troubles of the Far East?
Back home, we could focus on domestic matters for the first time in a while. Budgets are watched more for their personal impact than their market moving potential these days, because EMU candidacy has limited the options of individual finance ministers. Which is why Britain hates the idea so much.
However, it means that ministers have to do something really radical before the markets make much of a move and we're so used to radical moves these days that it would have to be pretty significant to upset the general tone. Not that Mr McCreevy seems to care what the market thinks, being a man who perhaps might prefer us to put the money on a horse. It would want to be a damned good one to make the money that a half-decent equity portfolio would have provided this year even with the October downturn.
With the year-end approaching, participants don't want to do anything too courageous right now either. Slow and steady up to bonus-time would be the watchword.
Looking abroad again, I saw that our old friend, El Nio, was being blamed for problems in the coffee producing areas of Colombia recently. This is potentially a worrying situation. I am not usually a party animal (despite last weekend), but my December diary is beginning to fill up and I know that coffee is going to be an integral part of the recovery process. I hate to think there might be a slowdown in production.
Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed-income specialist at NCB stockbrokers.
