White knight unlikely to rescue O'Brien

Industry analysts say there is little chance of Esat chairman, Mr Denis O'Brien, finding a "white knight" if he wishes to fend…

Industry analysts say there is little chance of Esat chairman, Mr Denis O'Brien, finding a "white knight" if he wishes to fend off the €158 billion (£1.24 billion) bid for his company by Newtel, the newly merged Telia/Telenor company.

The offer may be improved and as a result of Newtel's 49.5 per cent stake - through Telenor - in Esat Digifone, the highearning, high-growth part of the Esat business, it will be difficult for any rival bidder to take it out.

This is because by making the bid on Wednesday Newtel signalled its intention to copperfasten its involvement in Digifone, the second mobile operator which has experienced phenomenal growth since it began trading three years ago. Telenor has decided to stay in, despite an extremely fractious relationship between the shareholders.

The two sides have been to the High Court over various issues, mainly because of rows over directors and perceived conflicts of interest.

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Although Telenor provided excellent technical know-how in expanding the Digifone network, it is believed that the company has virtually no employees now working in the group. Sources close to Telenor say Mr O'Brien can take what is viewed as an obstructionist role, pushing the interests of the Esat Group which provides fixed-line voice and high-speed data services, mainly to the corporate sector.

There is a view that Mr O'Brien wanted Telenor to divest its stake - on which Esat would have had to be given first option.

Esat sources say Telenor directors do not fully appreciate the Irish way of doing business and took a more conservative approach.

One source claimed they (there are three directors on the Digifone board) could be extremely rude, conversing with one another in Norwegian during board meetings.

Against such a backdrop, analysts believe nobody will be in a hurry to launch a counter-bid.

For Newtel, the stakes are high. The company will undertake its own IPO next year and this is its first major acquisition. "They want to be up there with the big boys - the Worldcoms, the Sprints, Vodafone, Mannesmann's of this world," said one source.

Although it launched in the residential market one year ago, Esat has continued to focus strongly on its corporate market, through the provision of high-speed data and Internet services. It also has its own national fibre optic network, which helps reduce its costs as it is not so dependent on Eircom to deliver its calls.

This means it can achieve a higher margin through the use of its own network.

It is precisely because of its focus on the high-yielding corporate and mobile markets that Newtel is interested in Esat, seeing it as a good fit with its own future plans.

However, nobody is writing Mr O'Brien off. If he chooses to fight, he is capable of pulling something out of the hat. In the run-up to the Cablelink sale it was rumoured that he could not find a strategic partner with whom to launch a bid.

At the last minute, he linked up with Charter Communications, an expanding, highly-regarded US cable group, established by Mr Paul Allen, a founder of Microsoft. "Never underestimate him," said one source who knows him well.