The human race, according to that well-known sceptic, Dr Samuel Johnson, has a tendency to "represent as perpetual that which is only frequent, or as constant that which is really casual".

This unscientific trait, presumably, must be held accountable for the many traditional meteorological beliefs concerning saints' days. Today, St Vincent's Day, is such a case in point.

Vincent is the patron saint of drunkards. Lest there be any confusion, this Vincent is not the charitable 17th-century French priest who devoted most of his life to helping the Parisian poor, and who is remembered as Vincent de Paul; the latter, as far as we can tell, was never known to touch a drop. No, the former Vincent was Archdeacon of Saragossa and lived there during the reign of the Emperor Diocletian; in AD 304 he was martyred at Valencia for his adherence to the new religion.

Now, neither of these Vincents, as far as we know, had any particular interest in the weather. Nonetheless, St Vincent's Day, January 22nd, is of great meteorological significance, a fact attested to in this traditional rhyme: Remember on St Vincent's Day

That if the sun his beams display,

Be sure to mark his transient beam,

Which through the casement sheds a gleam;

For 'tis a token bright and clear,

Of prosperous weather all the year.

Moreover, it may be that Vincent's nomination as the patron saint of drunkards was achieved through the mistaken belief that his name has something to do with wine or vines, since a variation of the same rhyme goes: On Vincent's day, if the sky be clear More wine than water will crown the year.

If, however, you happen to miss the signs today, or indeed, if you simply do not like the signs you see, another long-range forecast is available to you early next week. Next Tuesday, January 25th, is the feast of the Conversion of St Paul; it recalls the dramatic events which overtook Saul of Tarsus on the road from Jerusalem to Damascus, moving him to change not only his lifestyle, but his name as well. The heavens, it seems, have signs to offer all of us on Paul's feast day:

Let credulous boys and prattling nurses tell

How, if the festival of Paul be clear,

Plenty with liberal horn shall strew the year;

But if the skies dissolve in snow or rain,

The labouring hind shall yoke the steer in vain;

And if the threatening winds in tempest roar,

The war shall bathe her wasteful sword on gore.

It was the 17th-century English poet John Gay who translated the Paul's Day tradition into these nice lines of verse, but perhaps the same poet was on stronger ground when he admonished: Let not such vulgar tales debase thy mind For neither Paul nor Swithin rules the clouds and wind.