`The sharks are circling but there's no blood in the water. He's not only not going to falter, he's stronger today than he was before this happened."

This is the confident prediction of Ralph Reed, a Republican Party strategist who is advising George W. Bush on his bid for the White House from which his father was dismissed by the voters in 1992. Republicans are still brooding over this loss to a brash Bill Clinton, who went on to tarnish the honour of the presidency over his dalliance with a young White House intern, Monica Lewinsky.

It would only be right and just for George Bush jnr to reclaim the presidency for party, the family and the country and restore honour and integrity to the Oval Office, the Republicans argue. That was until last week, when the White Knight from Texas suddenly stumbled when asked about rumours that he sniffed cocaine, a hard drug the use of which can send you to jail even for a first offence in the Governor's home state.

Republicans who have poured an estimated $50 million into Mr Bush's campaign coffers for an election still over a year away are dismayed at how their hero is suddenly floundering. Outside the overheated political atmosphere of Washington and the pundits on the chat shows, the country at large is taking a wait-and-see attitude.

Among Republicans in New Hampshire - where the first primary contest takes place next February - Mr Bush's support is still 40 per cent plus and well ahead of his nearest rivals, Elizabeth Dole and Senator John McCain.

In national polls, Mr Bush leads the likely Democratic candidate, Vice-President Al Gore, by 17 percentage points - so the cocaine issue is not hurting seriously so far.

This could change if it refuses to go away. There's too much riding on Mr Bush for Republicans, hungry to win back the White House, to let a disaster to happen now. The Al Gore camp, struggling with media dismissals of his campaign as "boring", can hardly believe its luck while feigning indifference to the travails of its main rival.

President Clinton has been drawn into the controversy following charges last week by Gennifer Flowers, with whom he has admitted having an affair, that he had told her there were times "he did so much cocaine at parties that his head would itch".

A White House spokesman replied: "The president has never done cocaine. That applies to his entire life."

Some Republicans have mixed feelings at the mishap of George Bush jnr whom they see as a political lightweight, who calls Greeks "Grecians" and who is trading on his father's name and the goodwill it carries among the party faithful.

Mr Reed has his suspicions that the cocaine rumour, which is not new, is being stirred up by some of these rivals, especially the camp of multi-millionaire publisher, Steve Forbes, who is courting the Christian conservatives. "A number of journalists have indicated to me that some of the things that happened this week were being encouraged by some of the other campaigns, and particularly the Forbes campaign. I think that's terribly unfortunate," Mr Reed said.

Regardless of who is stirring up rumours - and no one has produced any proof of cocaine use - Mr Bush has made a mess of dealing with them. Even newspapers which would normally be sympathetic to Republicans are losing patience with what are now being called the "Clintonesque" evasions from the man who is promising to restore honour and dignity to the office of president.

IF Mr Bush has never taken cocaine, why does he not say so? Instead, he insists on his right to "privacy" and says "I'm not going to talk about what I did as a child". What he did 20 or 30 years ago is "irrelevant", he says, and while he "made mistakes" he has "learned from them". He has volunteered however that he has never been unfaithful to his wife and that he gave up alcohol at the age of 40. Why then won't he answer questions on whether he ever took illegal drugs?

Mr Bush is in a similar dilemma to President Clinton last year, when the latter was being urged to admit he had committed perjury so that a mollified Congress would be content to censure him rather than impeach and dismiss him. Such an admission would have left him wide open to being indicted by Independent Counsel, Mr Kenneth Starr, for perjury and the risk of a criminal trial which would destroy his presidency.

If Mr Bush admits to taking cocaine, he is confessing to a felony, whereas marijuana for personal use to which Mr Gore has admitted in the 1970s is a misdemeanour. For Mr Bush, admitting to a felony for which he has helped to put young people in Texas jails might destroy his presidential bid.

He has a huge problem on his hands if he cannot or will not deny the cocaine rumours. His supporters, who now include most of the Republican establishment, point out that no one has produced any proof of cocaine use and that the media in all fairness must drop the issue unless there is some evidence.

However, in the space of two days, the media found a way to move Mr Bush from his refusal to answer any question about drugs to saying that he could have passed the drugs check used for security clearance in "my daddy's" White House.

This implies that he is in the clear from the age of 28. Inevitably, he will be pressed on filling in the missing years from 18 to 28. He is getting conflicting advice on whether he should "fess up" if his "mistakes" during these youthful years included cocaine. His own position is that he has no more to say about the matter. Those with long memories recall what happened to presidential hopeful Gary Hart, in 1987. When faced with charges of womanising, he challenged the media, saying: "If anybody wants to put a tail on me, go ahead. They'd be very bored."

It did not take the Miami Herald long to turn up Donna Rice as the model whose company Senator Hart shared on a cruise to the Bahamas on a luxury craft called Monkey Business. End of the Hart bid for the presidency.