The toll of deaths on our roads continues. The past seven days have been particularly horrifying, with 16 lives claimed, including five from one extended family. The pattern of accidents and deaths has been replicated over the past 20 years, with most fatal accidents associated with young men. Also a high proportion, 71 of 221 fatalities this year, involves a single vehicle, suggesting loss of control.

Over the years there have been vigorous campaigns to stem the tide. However, the figures for road deaths over the past two decades have fluctuated hugely. There were 582 road deaths in 1981, 404 in 1994, 437 in 1995 and 415 in 2000. So the impact of the various safety campaigns is unclear.

Strategies adopted include graphic posters, harrowing television and radio advertisements, anti-drink driving campaigns, hefty fines for speeding and related offences, a proposed penalty points system to be introduced next year and the possible inclusion of "governors" to limit engine speed at each gear level. On patches of very dangerous road, such as in the Louth/Meath area, wrecked cars were placed on the hard shoulder so as to encourage speed restriction. Intuitively, any or all of these ought to be successful.

The fact that almost one-third of accidents involve a single vehicle points strongly to the role of alcohol in these tragedies. The effects of alcohol on judgment are well known to everybody, yet many continue to drive under its influence. Although it is a hugely important factor in accidents, it is clearly not the only one. Several other important elements need to be considered if those charged with reducing deaths on our roads are ever to be successful.

Every car owner in Ireland must by now be familiar with the driver who overtakes on double white lines, with the driver who raises smoke on the narrow country road travelling at 60 miles per hour, or with the sound of a horn hooting behind us when we diligently drive within the speed limit. However, unless we understand the psychology of those breaking our traffic laws, our campaigns may be ineffective.

Studies of risk-taking by social psychologists describe what is called the Pollyanna Principle - the belief that since I have always been safe, I am safe now and I will be safe in the future.

Not surprisingly, young people who have lived securely are most affected by this benign view of the world. In many respects it is the ideal that we wish for our young people - happiness, security and confidence. But it may obscure the hidden dangers that lurk behind the steering wheel.

HAVING taken risks before such as overtaking on unbroken lines, there is a feeling of being invincible. Linked to this is "The Just World" perspective. From this vantage point, good things happen to good people and conversely, bad things to bad people. So we believe that road accidents happen to those who do the wrong things, they happen to "them", not to "us". We put distance between ourselves and the reality that none of us is protected from tragedy.

It is hardly surprising that young people, who by virtue of their youth have been cocooned from loss, are most likely to see the world in this way. It may also explain the relative failure of some of the strategies adopted to reduce road accidents, especially the wrecked-car approach.

Even among those who care about road safety and try to respect the law in this regard, there are some studies that describe "risk compensation" - the phenomenon in which a reduction in one area of risk leads to a negating change in behaviour in another. So as seat belts are used, and there is an increased sense of safety, speed also increases.

There are even more serious problems in devising preventive strategies around those young people for whom life is hopeless, boring or just simply awful. There are many who have had a difficult and problematic life. The world is seen as a place of danger, a place where nobody is safe and where helplessness is endemic.

The thrill and the buzz of driving fast, whether it is their own car or a stolen one, is a break from their mundane, wearisome lives. The "joy ride" brings them to life, and concerns for safety play no part in their thinking. Far from feeling invincible like their secure counterparts, they just do not care whether they are or not, so long as they experience the rush of excitement.

There is an imperative to continue to try and reduce the number of road tragedies that we have witnessed this year. The huge number of the past week highlights the problem in a very stark way.

The main ingredients include speed and alcohol, and the gardai are rightly doing everything in their power to target these elements. Yet there are fundamental psychological and behavioural attributes underpinning the problem that require exploration if we are ultimately to defeat it. Targeting these unexplored areas may provide some hope after all.

Dr Patricia Casey is a psychiatrist