Banotti finds inside track blocked in presidential race

For three days at Leinster House there were mutterings of discontent among Fine Gael TDs and Senators over what they regarded…

For three days at Leinster House there were mutterings of discontent among Fine Gael TDs and Senators over what they regarded as a "ready-up" for the nomination to contest the presidency. Last Monday, members of the parliamentary party received a letter which stated bluntly that nominations for the position would close on Wednesday and a formal party decision to select the candidate would be taken yesterday. The only candidate formally in the field at that stage was Mary Banotti, Fine Gael's MEP for Dublin. Her sister, former Minister for Justice, Nora Owen, had been hustling and using her political influence for weeks and it looked as if it was about to pay off. Given the shortness of the notice and the unpreparedness of other would-be candidates, Ms Banotti's selection looked like a sure thing.

The only other names being mentioned in a vague fashion were those of Avril Doyle and of former Minister for Education, Gemma Hussey.

Then Ms Doyle stepped in. The former Minister of State, who lost her Dail seat in the general election, took time off from her Seanad campaign to sock it to the leadership. There was to be no "short corner" for Ms Banotti; no inside track; a campaign for selection would have to go the distance.

Rightly or wrongly, John Bruton was perceived as having caved in to pressure from his deputy leader by arranging a snap selection process.

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A long campaign, running into October 30th, might indeed favour a Fine Gael nominee - as it had benefited Mrs Robinson in 1990 - but the short selection process was definitely slanted in Ms Banotti's favour. Some party members were seething.

As a result, when the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party met yesterday, the leadership backed off. A proposal to defer the selection process to September was put to the meeting.

And, given the small turn-out because of the holiday, the antiBanotti faction had its way.

By the time the parliamentary party meets again, in the autumn, the position will have changed considerably.

For a start, the Fine Gael electorate will include its newly-elected senators, who will be chosen next week.

Ms Doyle may be among their number. Not only that, but she will be fresh from her canvass of TDs, senators and councillors across the country and will have built up a wide contact base.

Deferment of the selection process has another important effect. It leaves open the possibility of an agreed, all-party nomination.

Since the beginning of the year, as it became clear that Mrs Robinson intended to make a career at the United Nations, the main political parties have sought to submerge their lack of appetite for a presidential election in an agreed candidate.

John Hume, the leader of the SDLP, was approached in that regard. But he indicated at the time that his role in re-establishing an IRA ceasefire took precedence.

Seamus Heaney, the Nobel Laureate, was also canvassed. He expressed no interest.

Within Fianna Fail, Albert Reynolds has been chasing the job for more than a year. The former Taoiseach is regarded as the front-runner for the party's nomination, in spite of reservations about his suitability and his ability to attract the Dublin vote.

His main rival is former Minister, Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, who quit politics because of concerns over her family's privacy. To make the transition back into politics with any credibility, Ms Geoghegan-Quinn would have to be "drafted" by Bertie Ahern.

Because of past political tensions between the two, that seems unlikely. Especially as it would also require Mr Reynolds to stand aside in order to facilitate a former supporter.

But stranger things have been known to happen. Mr Ahern has already prevailed on David Andrews to shelve his presidential ambitions to retain a party seat in Dun Laoghaire.

THE Labour Party is on the record as favouring a contest. The only development that would change that would be the nomination of Mr Hume, from a closely-affiliated party. In the meantime, the party continues the process of candidate review.

At the moment, Michael D. Higgins, former Minister for the Arts, Culture and the Gaeltacht is said to be actively seeking the position. Niamh Bhreathnach, former Minister for Education, is also interested.

Other names being mentioned in that regard are those of Mervyn Taylor, former Minister for Equality and Law Reform, and Maureen Gaffney, psychologist, broadcaster and chairperson of the Economic and Social Forum.

It is understood that Catherine McGuinness, a High Court judge, is not interested in the nomination.

Two former EU Commissioners, Peter Sutherland and Ray MacSharry, were mentioned as possible candidates, but neither appeared to be seriously interested.

In such an open race, the advantage must lie with the candidate selected by Fianna Fail.

But, the nomination of Mr Reynolds would immediately raise questions about Progressive Democrats support. And, as happened in 1990, a voting transfer pattern between the candidates of the smaller parties could allow history to repeat itself.