The Irish are addicted to computer games, and will soon be on the front-line in the new battle of the consoles, reports Donald Clarke
Doug Lowenstein, president of the Entertainment Software Association, recently set out to dispel a popular myth. Though a hundred technology pundits may glibly claim otherwise, the video game business is not yet "bigger than Hollywood".
"In truth, the worldwide film industry stands at about $45 billion [ €35 billion] and the worldwide video game industry checks in at around $28 billion," Lowenstein said.
Fair enough. But consider this. In 2004, Halo 2, a sequel to a popular video game involving murderous space travellers, earned $125 million on its first day on sale. Early that year, Spiderman 2, a sequel to a popular film concerning a genetically maladjusted teenager, broke the record for the biggest opening weekend at the US box office. Yet it could only manage a paltry $114 million. Cinema tickets do, it is true, cost considerably less than video games, but that statistic confirmed the games industry had developed a cultural and economic presence comparable to that of Hollywood.
The comparison is useful. If we date the beginnings of the video game business to the development of Pong - the rudimentary tennis game that once seemed like the future encased in a fake teak cabinet - we have been securing extra lives and setting high scores for about 35 years. At a similar point in their history, movies had already become comfortable with sound and were embarking on experiments in colour. In short, all the really significant technical leaps forward had been already taken.
By contrast, at the annual Electronic Entertainment Expo in Los Angeles in May, the major players in the gaming business were all eager to explain just how many outdated paradigms their new machines would shatter. In human beings the development of a generation takes about 20 years. In the video games industry it seems to take months.
Most of the headlines from E3, as it the event is known, focused on the announcement of a release date for the Sony PlayStation 3. The new machine, whose predecessor is comfortably the brand leader, will ship at the beginning of November. It will be priced at €499 for the basic model (I hate you, Mum!) or €599 for the premium edition (shut up, Mum, I've nearly beaten the giant spider!).
Considering that the PS3's main rival, Microsoft's X-Box 360, was released last Christmas, Sony could be accused of adopting the hubristic attitude hares proverbially take toward tortoises. Having sold more than 100 million PlayStation 2s, the Japanese giant perhaps feels its loyal customers will wait as long as it takes for its successor.
Niall O'Hanrahan, managing director of Sony Computer Entertainment Ireland, denies any such complacency.
"We would never say we cannot fail," he says. "We have a marketing challenge from now until launch. This is not a done deal. It will require a lot of effort from us. Competition is now not limited to direct competition. We compete with MP3 players. We noticed at the expo that games for PCs are back."
O'Hanrahan has had notable success shifting Sony's products in the domestic market. The country got wealthy just in time for the launch of the first PlayStation and continues to boast the highest per capita ownership of games consoles outside Japan. This is good news for Dylan Collins, founder of the successful Irish games developers Demonware.
"Yes, when the PlayStation was launched it coincided with the birth of the Celtic Tiger," he laughs. "Here was something to spend all that money on. Then again, perhaps it sold so well here because we are all ferociously lazy and don't want to leave the house."
Over at Microsoft, Bill Gates's representatives are rubbing their hands at the prospect of a year's free run at the market. There have, however, been hiccups. The X-Box 360, juicier, faster and better appointed than the ageing PS2, induced chaos in games stores last Christmas as parents squabbled to grab the small handful on sale. The Game Group, a major retailer, had to issue a profit warning when it became clear insufficient units were available. Happily for Microsoft, the 360s are now flying out of stores.
"By the end of our fiscal year we will have shipped 5.5 million consoles," Orla Sheridan, manager of home entertainment at Microsoft Ireland, says proudly. "And by the time our competitor ships, we will have sold 10 million. In all previous console wars, the first to ship 10 million has won."
So, what exactly are the new consoles offering? Better graphics, of course. But then every new launch has promised that. Yes, the new machines provide greater capacity to play games with other equally lonely men in basements via a broadband connection. But that, again, is a refinement of an already familiar feature.
Sony would argue that the PS3's capacity to play Blu-ray DVDs, one of the two competing species of new high-definition DVD, singles it out as particularly desirable. Though €599 may seem expensive for a games console, that is still €200 or so less than most experts expect the cheapest dedicated Blu-ray player to retail for. Microsoft, perhaps aware of the atmosphere of suspicion among punters who only recently bought first-generation DVD players, has not granted the 360 the ability to play Blu-ray. A peripheral unit will, however, soon be available to upgrade the machine to accommodate the rival HD-DVD format.
"We don't think we will know who has won the war between Blu-ray and HD-DVD until Christmas 2007," Sheridan says. "The issue here is consumer choice. People may not want to move to the next generation of DVDs at the same time as they move to the next generation of gaming."
All this talk of next generations does sound a tad grandiose. The literature on the PlayStation 3 suggests that its launch, like that of the X-Box 360, marks an evolution rather than a revolution in the industry.
Meanwhile, Nintendo, always slightly barmier than the other two main players in the console wars, came to E3 and tore up the rulebook.
There was a three-hour queue at the expo to try out the eccentrically named Nintendo Wii (pronounced "we"), whereas punters only had to wait 30 minutes to play the PS3. A glance at photographs of the Wii in action helps clarify why it proved so popular. The device's controller incorporates a sensitive motion detector that allows game players to swat at virtual tennis balls or whack zombies over the head with imagined battle-axes.
Dylan Collins happily joined the queue to try out the Wii.
"The essence of game-play is fun, and a lot of games developers seem to have forgotten that," he says. "This new controller is a physical thing. You can use it in a more meaningful way. If you have a sword-fighting game you can swing it around like it actually is a sword. Sony and X-Box have nothing like that. It really does work and it's a lot of fun."
Despite his enthusiasm for the Wii and his acknowledgment of the PlayStation 3's inevitable success - "people criticise Sony for the price, but they could charge double and the first three million would fly off the shelves" - Collins has some reservations about the state of the business. Put simply: the consoles are great, but where are all the killer games? The industry appears to be suffering from similar problems to those afflicting Hollywood. Aware of the staggering capital outlay required to launch their products, the money-men are increasingly playing safe.
"That is quite accurate," Collins says. "Look at the games top 10. Nine of those games will be either sequels or licensed from Hollywood. Only about 10 per cent of games are original. That is about the same as the movie business. As games become more expensive to produce, the industry becomes more cautious. The average development budget for a game is about $15 million. Ten years ago it was about $2 million. When you consider that you have to add in another $15 million or so for promotion, it is little wonder developers are so risk averse."
New media doesn't stay new forever. Just as rock stars, once dangers to society, ended up accepting knighthoods and playing the piano at royal funerals, the geeks in garages who pioneered the games industry have aged into a cautious new establishment. Roger Daltry CBE sung it best in The Who's Won't Get Fooled Again. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.
