The Problem : The Balkans have been disintegrating since the death of Tito, the postwar dictator of Yugoslavia. The crisis plunged to catastrophic depths in Croatia and Bosnia, where civil wars involving the area's three main ethnic groups - the Serbs, Croats and Muslims - resulted in widespread carnage and huge loss of life. Now Albania is close to complete breakdown, with government and opposition virtually at war on the streets of Tirana. In Bosnia, it looks as though extreme nationalists may win elections in Republika Srpska , the Serb part of the country. This would destabilise the Dayton peace deal.

Meanwhile, in Kosovo, Serbian forces continue to drive ethnic Albanians from their homes and shell their villages, setting the scene for a possible humanitarian catastrophe this winter.

The Solution : Continued close US engagement in the region is essential. US involvement to date is mainly responsible for the small measure of stability which exists. If extreme nationalists win in Bosnia (election results next week) the US must be ruthless in withdrawing international aid and assistance if they even think of misbehaving. And Slobodan Milosevic will only call off his forces in Kosovo if he fears military strikes. Right now he doesn't. The US must lead a reluctant Europe to make him do so.