Kevin Courtneyon a future star in the family

When I was just a little boy, my father asked me what would I be. "A pop star!" I answered quickly. "With hair like Marc Bolan, boots like Gary Glitter, and a space suit like David Bowie!" "Don't be silly, son," admonished Dad. "Pop stars are here today, gone tomorrow. You're better off getting a more secure career in the financial sector. Now go get a haircut."

Well, as the recent credit crunch has shown, a career in finance can be as fleeting as KajaGooGoo's fame. Meanwhile, the rock stars of my generation just keep on trucking, and none show any sign of being gone anytime soon.

Had I fulfilled my boyhood dream of becoming a pop star, I might be doing my 30th Anniversary Tour right now, and Bono might be wishing he hadn't taken that mortgage broker job.

Now, with a son of my own, I'm wondering what he will be when he grows up.

Of course, he has his mother's looks and brains, and let's hope he has a better singing voice than his dad. But will he have any musical talent? What instrument will he play? Guitar? Drums? Flugelhorn? What kind of frontman would he be? A Liam Gallagher type, all mouth and no trousers? Or a Chris Martin clone, all smarmy sincerity and fair- trade platitudes?

I'm pretty sure he won't be Bono - at the rate he's growing, he'll tower over the U2 singer by the time he's 14.

I will admit that I've been playing him a few Beatles, Bowie and T Rex tunes on the guitar, just to give him a feel for the whole pop music thing, but I must stress that I'm not trying to "hothouse" the little fella. Wouldn't want him to turn out like Liam O'Maonlai, now, would we?

But, no matter how talented my son turns out to be, chances are he won't exactly stand out from the crowd of other talented chaps jostling for attention in the ever-shrinking rock universe. Currently, pretty much every Irish male between 15 and 25 is in a band. Every second household has at least one son who is thinking of quitting college/school/ kindergarten in order to "give it a go with the band".

By the year 2028, when Daniel will be 15, pop stars will be so thick on the ground they'll be considered vermin, to be shot on sight. There'll be no such thing as six-figure record contracts. Pop stars will be like unpaid court jesters, forced to perform in front of King Louis Walsh XIV; those deemed not entertaining enough will be thrown to the lions.

Music will have become devalued from overuse, overhype and overkill, and silence will become a hot commodity.

In this barren, tune-free environment, the only bands who will thrive are reformed cheesy groups from the 1980s.

If the current 1980s nostalgia continues, then Duran Duran, Spandau Ballet, ABC and Kajagoogoo can all expect to be still hugely popular in the 2020s.

So that's settled, then: I'm buying Daniel a synth for his first birthday. Might as well get him started young.