OVER confidence on the eve of any major race has an unfortunate habit of being pinpricked but rarely can the Budweiser Irish Derby have set such a head scratching, brain dissolving puzzle as tomorrow's renewal does.
Over confidence in any of the 10 runners wilt not be a problem: trying to generate enough enthusiasm in any one of their chances, in order to speculate financially, is. Quite simply, this Derby breathes new life into the cliche, wide open race.
A glance at the bookmakers prices tends to pour cold water on that theory though. Silver Patriarch will start a shortpriced favourite to go one better than his gallant second to Benny The Dip in the Epsom Derby and in theory tomorrow's race could be set up for him.
Outpaced coming down the hill towards Tattenham Corner at Epsom, the giant grey's position looked hopeless but when stamina came into play up the straight, he looked an awesome sight as Pat Eddery drove him through the pack into what looked like, until the shadow of the post, a winning surge.
The theory is that the Curragh's mile and a half, which traditionally places more of a premium on stamina, will suit Silver Patriarch ideally. Throw in the undoubted fact that on actual performance so far he is by far the highest rated of the 10 runners and the theoretical argument looks convincing. It's worth betting though that this time the theory is flawed.
What made Silver Patriarch looks so spectacular at Epsom may just be what beats him again tomorrow. Game and talented he undoubtedly is but Silver Patriarch looks fundamentally short of pace. Stiffer track or not, most Classic races are won by a decisive kick, something which got Benny The Dip home at Epsom and something which may get one of Silver Patriarch's opponents ahead of him again.
The problem is which one of them. There may be a question mark against the favourite but they are fairly queuing up next everything else in the race too.
Strawberry Roan has been the popular ante post choice and of the three Aidan O'Brien runners she looks to be marginally the best hope. Much of that popular confidence has been due to the £70,000 supplementary fee splashed out to put her in the race and the fact that she was palpably unlucky not to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
Despite being closely related to the 1991 Derby hero Generous, she is not guaranteed to last out tomorrow's trip and Christy Roche was convinced before that 1,000 Guineas that that was her best chance of classic glory. In the event the 1,000 Guineas looked, bar Strawberry Roan, to be a race full of non stayers and the form has hardly been franked since. Against that, the strenuous efforts of the Ballydoyle team to secure the services of Frankie Dettori for her shows how serious they are about her chance but even the presence of the charismatic Italian jockey may not be enough this time.
The other supplementary entry, Token Gesture, on the face of it has a lot going for her. Fast improving, proven on ground with cut and guaranteed to stay, it is also hugely significant that the shrewd Dermot Weld felt she was worth supplementing in the first place. She looks the better of Weld's duo although the difficulty of this race is summed up by Casey Tibbs having made Strawberry Roan look one paced in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown last April.
Michael Kinane will certainly be hoping that Token Gesture at least finishes ahead of her stable companion. Having been released to ride Dr Massini for Michael Stoute in last year's Derby, he had the galling experience of having to watch Pat Shanahan run away with the race on the 20 to 1 shot Zagreb, Weld's first winner of the great race.
A year before that Kinane had been beaten a head on Definite Article by the French challenger Winged Love but this time round, the Gallic challenge looks limited. The form of the French 2,000 Guineas hasn't been boosted by the winner Daylami so the runnerup, Loup Sauvage, representing the Andre Fabre Olivier Peslier team, looks vulnerable despite the French colts looking superior to everything else this year. Verglas ran the best race of his life when second in the Irish 2,000 Guineas but could find this trip too far.
Ultimately, for betting purposes, the 1997 Derby looks to put a premium on value and while Token Gesture's each way chance looks attractive the best value of all could come from a source that has experienced every sort of Derby, open or sewn up, since he first won it with Chamier in 1953.
Vincent O'Brien went on to win the Irish Derby five more times with horses of the calibre of Nijinsky and El Gran Senor and while the colt he now owns, the tough, hardy and improving Dr Johnson, may not be in that class, he looks a good each way bet to allow Charles O'Brien continue the wonderful family Derby tradition.
On the face of it, Dr Johnson's form may not shout potential Derby winner but he has won his last three races and is proven over the trip. He proved that at Leopardstown when overcoming gluey ground to beat Zafarabad by a length and that is evidence of how he has progressed with his racing.
A notoriously lazy worker, he has improved from each of his races to the next and regular rider Christy Roche could yet have reason to regret having to ride the Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Desert King in the race.
However, if that sounds like over confidence, it isn't!
