Politics is a rough old game. It goes in phases, and those who are up today will invariably be down before too long, though those who are down may not always find the reverse is true.

These thoughts were in Drapier's mind as he reflected on the last session. Apart from Seamus Healy it was a bruising session in which there were no winners. The Government lost heavily, but the Opposition made little palpable progress.

The Government must be hoping its display was something akin to Kevin Kinahan's performance for Offaly in the first half of last Sunday's hurling semi-final. In that half Kinahan was hurled off the pitch by the Cork forwards who ran rings around him and left him floundering.

Come half time all the pundits said the game was up, the full back should be moved or replaced. But Offaly kept faith, and in the second half Kinahan hurled all round him, routed the Cork forwards and helped secure the day for Offaly.

Bertie Ahern, Brian Cowen and their colleagues must be hoping the half-time break the Government is enjoying will give them a fresh start in the autumn, getting them the political rewards they regard as rightfully theirs. And while neither John Bruton nor Ruairi Quinn is a great hurling fan, the spectacle of Cork, unable to translate numerous opportunities into scores, must have its own worries.

So will the second half be different? And will it go the full duration? If by different we mean that the tribunal-related troubles which have done so much to distract, divide and damage the Government will be any the less, then we are making a mistake. If anything, matters will only get worse.

We will have up to 10 weeks of Charlie Haughey in the tribunal witness box. Ray Burke will be back. Padraig Flynn will make his debut. Liam Lawlor will have his moments. The Taoiseach may have to jog his memory once again. And that's only part of the cast of characters likely to appear - and don't forget Owen O'Callaghan and Frank Dunlop.

Incidentally, what PR genius advised Fianna Fail to go ahead with its corporate tent at Galway races? Bertie stayed out of it as much as he could, but did the public need to be reminded so vividly that Fianna Fail is "the builder's party".

No. There will not be a fresh start in the autumn. But what of the "good news" strategy of the past few weeks?

Hardly a day has gone by without some major new initiative being announced. Many of them are worthwhile - Willie O'Dea's plans on adult literacy are thoughtful and well-funded - and some are eminently sensible, like Noel Dempsey banning low-level letterboxes. The hope is that the cumulative effect of good news from an active Government will win back the support that melted away in May and June.

Some of it may. The main problem is that most of the proposals are long-term, while most people think short-term. More than that, the headlines have been consistently grabbed by the bad news stories, especially the traffic chaos caused by Brendan Ogle's pickets and the impotence of Governnment, unions and CIE against a handful of workers in dispute.

In fact there has been no shortage of issues to engage or divert people. Issues like the possibility of Jerry McCabe's killers being released or the likelihood of Eircom executives getting fat bonuses while the rest of the country see their shares drop (and Drapier commends Shane Ross on his campaign to put manners on the Eircom big shots).

These are the things Drapier hears people talking about, plus worries about house prices, inflation and traffic. Not to mention the Leaving Cert results due next week.

But will the Opposition do any better? The opportunities are there, but if they want to make an impact there is a lot to do, and not a great deal of time. John Bruton's new front bench has yet to make any impact, even if Jim O'Keeffe made sense in calling for the lifting of sanctions against Iraq.

But it's going to take some strong performances from Bruton's key players - Michael Noonan, Ivan Yates, Alan Dukes in particular - if the party is to lift itself in the polls.

As for Labour, Ruairi Quinn has yet to get the best out of his team. He has not spared himself since becoming leader and has a right to expect more from some colleagues. But progress in Dublin at least is satisfying and real gains appear likely. South Tipp, however, is another matter and an indication of slippage in Labour's rural heartland.

It's going to be an intriguing autumn session. Fianna Fail will want to emphasise the economy and put distance between itself and the Haughey years. It will want to see the tribunal manure spread as widely as possible and project itself as a confident, forward-looking party, well shot of its past baggage and in command of a healthy and fair economy.

It won't be easy. But the task facing the Opposition parties is no less easy. They will need to focus on the tribunal issues, while hoping none of the fallout tarnishes them. They will have to show in practical terms that they are serious about reform. Most of all they will have to show a sense of flair and confidence not evident so far in dealing with the issues of government.

It's a tall order for both sides. But these are the issues which will decide the next election. And one other - voting alliances. Fianna Fail is in power today because of its electoral pact with the PDs in 1997. A clear voting pact is worth up to eight seats in a tight election.

People like to know they are voting for a potential government, or against as the case may be. They voted for Dick Spring in 1992, and made Albert Reyn- olds Taoiseach. This time there will be no room for ambiguity, in large part because the public mood is against fudge.

There will be many issues in the next election. But the only crucial one at this stage is what, if any, the electoral alliances will be. And there will be more than two players. The PDs, Greens, Sinn Fein and one or two Independents will have their say, too.

It is doubtful if any party will survive an election campaign without making its intentions clear. The only potential alliance which does not seem to be on is Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, though why that should be so defies logic.

As for the other question - how long the Government will last - Drapier sticks to his early prediction: next spring. And when it falls it will be for a reason none of us anticipated and which is still simmering beneath the surface.