It's begun already. Websites such as The Envelope, the awards blog of the Los Angeles Times, really only stop speculating about the Oscars for about six months of the year. Still, it is, in late September, discombobulating to encounter the following headline: "Is the Oscar Derby Already Over?"

The site suggests that there are already three strong favourites in the most glamorous categories. David Fincher's The Social Network, the story of the founding of Facebook, is at the head of the pack in the best picture race. Natalie
Portman's turn in Black Swan, a ballet thriller from Darren Aronofsky, looks a good bet for best actress. Colin Firth, who plays George VI of England in The King's Speech, is already pencilled in for best actor. Hey, what about J-Lo in
The Back-Up Plan? theenvelope.latimes.com.