With the controversial Drumcree march only days away, Deaglan de Breadun,

Northern Editor, writes that there is a note of 'nervous optimism' about a possible solution to the crisis. Senior political figures in Northern Ireland say there is "frenetic activity" taking place in an effort to resolve the Drumcree crisis. They say they have rarely seen such intense work behind the scenes to avoid a repeat of the chaos and anarchy of last year.

Nobody can say they weren't warned. There has been a whole year to avert another Drumcree crisis, and here we are only days from possible disaster.

If Drumcree goes wrong again this time it may be even worse than 1996. The IRA is back on a full war footing and the loyalist ceasefire is more honoured in the breach than the observance. The threat by the paramilitary splinter group, the Loyalist Volunteer Force, to kill citizens of the Republic unless the march goes through was an ominous although not surprising development.

Nevertheless, there is a note of nervous optimism that a peaceful solution to the problem can be found. Security sources said they were quietly hopeful. But the solution is not likely to be announced until almost the last minute. "It will go right down to the wire," according to a close observer of the peace efforts, and there might be no news until as late as tomorrow night.

Drumcree will no doubt be the main item on the agenda when Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern meet in London today. But it is highly unlikely the two men will emerge waving the answer to the riddle on a piece of paper.

The Taoiseach with his long history of ending standoffs in the industrial sphere will no doubt have ideas of his own about Drumcree, but it would not go down well with Orangemen and loyalists if he were seen to play a major part in resolving the current dispute.

There was mild surprise in Belfast the vehemence of Mr Ray Burke's opposition to having the march forced down the Garvaghy Road. He said it would have "implications for many things on this island".

If the march is forced through then the Government will have been snubbed by London. But perhaps the most serious implication was outlined by Mr Gerry Adams when he hinted that a new ceasefire would be more difficult to achieve if Drumcree went the wrong way for nationalists.

His message was that if the British government could not stand up to unionists on the Garvaghy Road then it would hardly stand Lip to them in the Stormont talks when decommissioning reared its head once more.

Mr Adams wrote: "Mr Blair's government must not behave as the Major government did. To do so would send a strong signal that one British government is much like another. It would say to nationalists that unionists rule whether it is on the streets or at the negotiating table."

Senior Northern Ireland Office sources said a local accommodation on the parade was still being sought. Whatever happened over the march, NIO sources were adamant that the ports and airports would be kept open; that no "mustering" of Orangemen on the 1996 scale would be permitted; and that, if necessary, the British army would be called in to uphold the rule of law. They noted that the logistics of the situation allowed the Orange Order greater room to manoeuvre than the nationalist residents.

HE Orange Order has been taking a fairly studied and careful approach to the whole issue. It was noteworthy that the Order's Grand

Secretary, Mr John McCrea, said numbers would be limited, the bands would remain silent on the nationalist section of the Garvaghy Road and the number of flags would also be restricted.

None of this is likely to satisfy the Garvaghy residents' coalition. "An Orange march is an Orange march," Mr Breandan Mac Cionnaith said yesterday.

But the note of restraint in the Orange leader's remarks was encouraging. It is understood that a number of options are being considered as possible solutions. The proposal by Mr Robert McCartney MP has attracted a great deal of interest, he suggested the Orangemen's parade should be declared lawful but that the Order would decide to exercise that right on another occasion, at a time of its own choosing.

To many observers this sounds like a "win-win" situation. The Orangemen could claim a moral victory: the nationalists would not have to endure the march passing through their area at this stage and the parade could be held perhaps at some other, less-heated, time of the year. This might be the way to create the "breathing space" so many people have demanded.

Failing an agreed solution, the decision on the parade will almost certainly have to be taken by the Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, advised by the Chief Constable, Mr Ronnie Flanagan. Security sources said the decision would not be based on local considerations alone but on the implications for Northern Ireland as a whole. Last year's near-insurrection by the two communities showed the seriousness of the situation.

Security sources were deriving littIe comfort from the absence of the loyalist leader, Billy Wright, who is serving a prison sentence at this time. They said others who were less politically-aware had taken his place.

The unionist middle class was said to be appalled by last year's violence, and it is believed it will not want to risk the future of Northern Ireland simply to march down the Garvaghy Road. At the same time there is a strong body of Orange and loyalist opinion that Drumcree is the "line in the sand" or, as the Orange District Master, Mr Harold Gracey, put it last year, Ulster's Alamo.

Meanwhile, the frantic settlement efforts continue. The large and unwieldy nature of the Orange Order is not making the job any easier. The solution, if it comes, is likely to be as fragile as a bird's first flight, and if someone shoots it down all may be lost. There is no Plan B," sources said.