Technological advances are likely to render many jobs obsolete, but will that mean the rise of a 'care economy', asks Fionola Meredith

The one thing a machine can't do is give you a hug. Not a real one, anyway: no cold, clinical robot arms could ever replicate the warmth, reassurance and affection of a genuine human embrace. But with rapid gains in artificial intelligence expected over the next few years, that capacity to connect with each other on an emotional level will be one of the last definably human abilities left that machines can't replicate.

According to scientist and futurologist Ian Pearson, who predicts trends for British Telecom (BT), computers will be as intelligent as humans within the next eight to 13 years. Autonomous decision-making robots will become more and more common, and could soon make many of their human counterparts redundant. "Jobs that are essentially analysing, creating information, processing information, and even creativity, will be largely automated within two decades, in many cases much earlier," predicts Pearson.

For instance, a hospital consultant, which Pearson describes as effectively "an expert system linked to a complicated robot", is relatively easy to automate. Nurses, on the other hand, provide a level of emotional support that machines just can't match.

"You can imagine a robot lifting you out of bed and changing your bed pan but you cannot really imagine a robot coming in being warm and compassionate and holding your hand if you've just had a family bereavement," says Pearson. "A nurse can do that because they are a genuine human being with genuine human emotion - you can't get that from a machine."

That's why so-called soft skills - those emotionally literate abilities such as inter-personal communication and compassion - will be at the forefront of what Pearson identifies as "the care economy".

Once robots or computers have rendered many workers disposable - "if you go to McDonald's in 2020, you won't care if the server is replaced by a machine" - Pearson says that what we will be left with are those jobs that rely on one-to-one human relationships.

"We call it the care economy because they are the sorts of jobs that need human contact - primarily caring-type jobs. Jobs such as teaching children, or caring for someone as a nurse, or starting a personal service for people, such as hairdressing."

Of course, it's women who have traditionally filled these (often) low-status, poorly-paid "caring" jobs. Chiming in with centuries of western philosophy and theology, Pearson believes that women are instinctively good at the emotional side of things. And he insists that it's nature, not nurture, that equips them for the cuddly role. (Pearson likes to draw an analogy with "caveman times", when men went out hunting and "women looked after the social stuff".)

So if this futurologist's predictions are true, and women's fabled ability to empathise and emote is belatedly acquiring status, it would represent a quite stunning reversal. The whole thing evokes an image of men desperately taking crash courses in emotional literacy (it takes millennia, fellas) in order to compete in the job market with the formidable twin forces of empathetic women and smart machines.

But will caring really be anointed as the last outpost of uniquely human endeavour? And will this elevation result in a pay increase? Even Pearson appears to be hedging his bets a little. "I'm not suggesting that the price of these skills will go up," he admits. "There's no reason to expect that [people in these jobs] will get paid any better. But these jobs will be valued because they aren't done by machines." When you get down to the detail, Pearson's "future is female" prediction isn't all that it seems.

"It does all sound rather utopian - I wish it were true," says Maeve Taylor, of feminist development education organisation Banúlacht. "But historically, advances in technology and changes in workforce patterns haven't increased the value ascribed to caring work. For instance, rises in male unemployment haven't resulted in unemployed men taking up caring responsibilities. As long as the caring role is seen as women's work, it will continue to be devalued, and there will continue to be discriminatory effects."

Jennifer Redmond, a researcher at Trinity College, and a former care worker herself, also finds the prospect of a "care economy" improbable. "I don't see it happening. There is a care deficit at present, but it's largely being filled by female foreign nationals, not men."

Esther Lynch, social affairs officer with the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, thinks that it's dramatic societal, rather than technological, changes that will really influence caring roles in years to come. She believes that the rise in smaller families (without the support of an extended network of relations, as in the past) and working parents means that there will be a big increase in the need for a publicly provided structure of care, especially when it comes to childcare or eldercare.

And is there really any evidence that women are innately more proficient at the caring skills that have historically been their lot? Are they born empathetic? It's far from clear that simply being female entitles you to a super-size helping of emotional literacy.

"You can't assume that automatic connection: it's a stereotype of women that has never been proved," says Redmond. "In addition, it's rather unfair to men: it doesn't really allow them the space to develop a caring role."

Maeve Taylor agrees: "Care is at the heart of human relationships, but let's not corral it as a purely female activity. Most women in a caring role gain emotional satisfaction from it - but it doesn't confer legal, political or economic power."

Emotional proficiency, however, is not simply about emitting feel-good waves of warmth and empathy. In the rapidly-growing area of emotional intelligence training, facilitators and coaches encourage participants to engage in a process of self-reflection that, they hope, will enhance their job prospects. Motivating staff, handling conflict, managing change and influencing others are also among the enhanced abilities promised by an EI overhaul.

Maureen Hewitt, director of Emotional Intelligence Ireland (EII), says: "We look at people from the inside: we examine how emotions feed into your behaviour. Emotional intelligence is all about the ability to manage yourself, other people and the pressures of your environment." According to EII, while "only 1 per cent of your success is down to your IQ , 26 per cent is down to your Emotional Quotient (EQ)". It's a big (and possibly unverifiable) claim, but there's no doubt that more and more people and businesses are alert to the potential of EI training.

Siobhan Bradley, a management consultant with the Institute of Public Administration, says it's all part of what has become known as "the feminisation of management: skills and competencies such as understanding people and getting the best out of them". So does Bradley believe that women have a head start over their male colleagues? "I wouldn't say so: personally, I think that just as many men as women are proficient."

Life coach and emotional intelligence trainer James Sweetman could be seen as living proof that blokes can cut it when it comes to the language of emotional articulacy.

"Research suggests that women may have more natural aptitude. But I see it as a bit like being a musician: some people are born with an innate aptitude - the Mozarts of this world - others can practise and practise until they become proficient. There's no doubt that men can achieve equal proficiency."

Reading between the lines, it looks like men have to pedal extra hard to reach the same destination, while for (most) women it's something more closely resembling an effortless coast.

"Women's work" may finally be getting the recognition it deserves. But even if the care economy - or, in Sweetman's phrase, "the relationship age" - finally arrives, it doesn't look as if the new respect for empathy and emotion will translate into fatter pay packets for the legions of poorly-paid carers out there.