KAISER Chiefs may well be the first bookies' favourite for the Mercury Music Prize to actually win the award. The unashamed Britpop revivalists - unheard of until a few months ago - are at 4/1 to win this year's prize. Right behind them, though, are three other nominees (Bloc Party, KT Tunstall and Coldplay) who will fancy their chances even though - for a variety of reasons - none of them stands a chance.
As we've come to expect, there is no Irish nominee on the album of the year shortlist for the best British/Irish work of the last 12 months. Also as we've come to expect, the shortlist throws up an "And Who Are You?" in Seth Lakeman, a nouveau-folk artist from Dartmoor. Obscure? Even his family haven't heard of him.
The other seven nominees are: Antony and the Johnsons (everyone thinks he's from the US but he's actually English); The Go! Team; Hard-Fi; The Magic Numbers; Maximo Park; MIA; and Polar Bear (the token jazz entrant).
Lakeman, as he will soon find out, will fill the category of "the guy from nowhere who made his album for £2.60" and as such will dominate media coverage of the event. It comes as no surprise to hear that his album, Kitty Jay (quite possibly the worst album title ever), was recorded in a kitchen and came in at under £300. It will probably be pointed out more than a few times over the coming weeks that Coldplay's Chris Martin spends more than £300 each day on hand paints for his "Make Trade Fair" slogans. Just thought I'd get in first with it.
Lakeman's album was inspired by the "mystery and legends" of Dartmoor, where he lives, and it was first premiered in front of prisoners at Dartmoor Jail last year. What not a lot of people know about the Mercury Music Prize is that you have to pay a fee even to get your album listened to by the judging panel. And there have been stories over the years about how some record labels simply wouldn't pay the £177 fee for some of their more "awkward" signings.
"I'm skint, I spent my last £177 on the entry fee," said Lakeman on finding out he was nominated. "I didn't think I stood a chance in hell, because thousands of albums are listened to by the panel."
Fellow Devon musician Chris Martin will know there is no way Coldplay will win the overall prize in September. The band are too big and the album has sold too many copies. It's not the Mercury way. If the Mercury panel reverted back to how they were five years ago - when acts such as Roni Size were allowed win - then you'd be looking at either Maximo Park or MIA coming out on top. But with the favourites, Franz Ferdinand, winning last year, it looks as if Kaiser Chiefs will prevail.
Some people (rightly) thought last year's award was wasted on Franz Ferdinand in that they had a profile and had sold truck-loads of records even before the nominations were announced. Although the award is for "the best British/Irish album", traditionally the Mercury winner has been a marginalised type of act worthy of a bigger platform.
If the panel is to have a rush of blood to the head and ignore the platinum sales of Kaiser Chiefs, they really should give the award to the new and very bright band Hard-Fi. From Staines, Hard-Fi are nominally a ska-punk band. Musically they sound like some mad hybrid of The Specials, The Jam and Dexys; lyrically they sound, in parts, like Squeeze and The Streets.
Kaiser Chiefs will be picking up any number of Brits/MTV awards for Employment. Hard-Fi's Stars Of CCTV might not be the best album of the last 12 months, but if it won it would send out a signal that the Mercury music prize was back in the business of rewarding innovation and raw potential rather than already established success. Go on Mercury Music Prize, surprise us.
