GENERAL Alexander Lebed has once more gone to Grozny to try to end the war and save his political career. The inhabitants of the Chechen capital are moving in a different direction with even more urgent motivation: they are getting out of town as fast as they can to save their lives.

Tomorrow, Russian forces threaten a massive air strike to "cleanse" the city of insurgents who humiliated Russia's military might by capturing and controlling the centre of federal power in Chechnya.

The order to re take the city purportedly came from President, Yeltsin but in an increasingly confused situation Gen Lebed claims that the document in effect was a forgery. The situation, to say the least, is unclear.

Should the air strike take place, Gen Lebed's political days may be numbered. A short term victory; might be achieved but in the long term the bitterness engendered bye indiscriminate bombing will serve only to stiffen the resolve of the rebels and lengthen the war. "Someone wants me to break my neck on this assignment," Gen Lebed said as he prepared for a journey which took him first to the church of St George the Victorious in Moscow for a brief prayer, and then onwards to the battlefront. He appears to be right.

The old Kremlin hands have not taken kindly to a newcomer who has expressed his intention to root out crime and corruption even in the highest reaches of power. The list of Gen Lebed's enemies is a long one. The Prime Minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, who has become, one of the wealthiest men in Russia, wants him to have no role in the economic sphere. President Yeltsin's new chief of staff, Mr Anatoly Chubais, who oversaw the privatisation of state assets, often into the hands of old style apparatchiks, supports Mr Chernomyrdin.

The interior minister, Gen Anatoly Kulikov, has, not surprisingly, been incensed by Gen Lebed's demand that he be sacked. Gen Kulikov has kept his post and remains a threat. The Russian commander on the ground in Chechnya, Gen Konstantin Pulikovsky, who prepared the air strike and who was also the subject of fierce criticism by Gen Lebed has not been so lucky and, at the last minute, has lost his job. His replacement, Gen Vyascheslav Tikhomirov, however, has a long record of being involved in Chechen ceasefires which failed to materialise.

And what side is President Yeltsin on? The most bizarre episode in the current drama concerns the order from Mr Yeltsin to Gen Lebed to retake Grozny before peace moves continue. On the face of it, that order helped the antiLebed faction, but now Gen Lebed, in so many words, declares it to be a forgery containing a facsimile rather than the real signature of Mr Yeltsin.

The President is the only person who can shed light on this situation but, seen in public only once in seven weeks, he has remained silent.

Despite strong official denials, rumours abound that Mr Yeltsin is seriously ill. Time magazine has produced an official document saying that he needs open heart surgery; the independent radio station, Ekho Moskvy, reported yesterday that he was already under treatment in a Moscow clinic; the German publication, Bild, believes he will be sent to a Swiss clinic; and this correspondent has been told that he suffered a mild stroke on or about June 25th. The official version is that he first of all had, a sore throat followed by exhaustion and is now on his way to rest in the Valdai lake district in northern Russia.

Should the President indeed be incapacitated the constitution would permit Mr Chernomyrdin to take the reins of power, but as there is no admission of serious illness power remains with Mr Yeltsin and with those who have his ear.

While Gen Lebed is in Grozny the voices of other men may be heard more clearly. The voices may be those of men with responsible positions inside the government or they may come from men in what is known as "the party of war", such as the shadowy Gen Alexander Korzhakov, who has been sacked as chief of the presidential bodyguard but remains Mr Yeltsin's close friend.

This is the scenario Gen Lebed left behind him as he headed for the front line. In Chechnya, the situation is every bit a complicated and unclear. In general, Gen Lebed appears to have stronger support from some of the Chechen rebels than he does from his own side. The rebel military leader, Mr Aslan Maskhadov, is a tough fighter and has shown remarkable military prowess. Politically, however, he is a moderate and is prepared to accept a settlement which falls short of independence.

In this he is likely to be opposed by the self styled Chechen president, Mr Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, and some of his subordinate military commanders. Such a split in the Chechen ranks would be a godsend to the Russian side.

Should the threatened attack on Grozny take place tomorrow Chechen unity will be further solidified. It is in Gen Lebed's interest, militarily and politically, to stop the promised onslaught. If he succeeds in this his own career and the prospects of peace in Chechnya will be salvaged for the time being.

What will happen after that is anybody's guess. Gen Lebed himself is, given to changing his views with startling alacrity. As a presidential candidate he advocated the evacuation of all non Chechens from the region in advance of a referendum on independence which if carried would lead to an economic blockade by Russia. In power he has ditched this idea in favour of limited autonomy for the region.

When running for office he called for an end to the fighting; when the war resumed immediately after Mr Yeltsin's election Gen Lebed said he was in favour of Russian military action. Now he is suing for peace once, more.

Highly unpredictable forces are at work, on all sides in the conflict and Russia is entering crisis mode once more. The defeated communist candidate, his supporters refrained from launching their expected obstructive tactics in the State Duma (lower house) earlier this month. They are sitting back and, one imagines, smiling.

In the autumn, local elections will determine the shape of the Russian Federation Council (upper house), and, should things continue as they have done, the communist chauvinist alliance may get their hands on two of the three levers of power.

Who will then control the presidency? Who controls it now?