Well, it has certainly been one of the most historic weeks in Irish politics as, for the first time in months, Hugh O'Flaherty fails to make it into the headline news - though this respite may be short-lived, with the Opposition parties gearing themselves up to resurrect the issue upon the Dail's return. While there is no doubt the affair has impacted severely on the two Government parties, Drapier would caution both John Bruton and Ruairi Quinn against flogging the issue to death. They have handled it well, except for the Jim Mitchell hiccup, and have poured ample salt on the Government's self-inflicted wounds.
The return of the Dail and the impending Budget will see Bertie Ahern working hard to put the mess behind him and concentrate on the "business of the people". John and Ruairi should not underestimate Ahern. He is a wily and skilful politician. He will not risk being perceived as "out of touch" and will gladly accept any opportunity they present to portray their campaigns as mud-slinging and mere political flim-flam.
One of the first items both Bertie Ahern and Charlie McCreevy will be seen to address is inflation. This continues to be one of the issues of the year. Although the finer points of the dismal science can at times be beyond Drapier's comprehension, basic common sense exposes much of the so-called "debate" on inflation as superficial and self-serving.
Drapier knows that you don't need a chair in economics to realise that extra money in the economy at this point would stoke that part of underlying inflation from domestic sources. This much seems uncontroversial.
So how is it that some people expect us to believe extra pay, extra welfare and lower taxes should be viewed as part of the "answer" to inflation? The idea that the top-rate elements of last year's tax package are the cause of inflation is laughable.
Drapier would advise his colleagues in Labour and the trade union leadership to hold back on their rhetoric, which is on the cusp of potentially seriously undermining workers' long-term interests. Do they really want to be chasing their tails again in the type of wages/prices spiral that caused so much poverty and unemployment in the 1970s and 1980s?
They should have a look at the ESRI's report, which showed earnings will actually increase by around 8.5 per cent this year, well ahead of the projected annual inflation rate. People are better off in real terms. Des Geraghty has been around long enough to know that some level-headedness at this point will benefit his members more than old-style confrontational demands.
As for the political arena, you can expect the next session to be full of charge and counter-charge on inflation, but you can be almost guaranteed no one will actually propose any serious anti-inflationary measure - oppositions do not see their job as calling for spending cuts and tax increases.
Drapier remembers a very fine speech by Labour's Derek McDowell dismissing the fact that extra spending would cause inflation. He also recalls a speech by Michael Noonan where he, with the dexterity which has become his trademark and has helped him become one of the Dail's star performers, attacked spending increases as inflationary and then proceeded to call for more spending! As for the Greens, only last week Drapier noticed Trevor Sargent's reluctance to restate their support for high taxes on fossil fuels as the hauliers prepared to take their day of action.
The Government seems to have no option but to hold tight and keep going until the Budget, where Bertie's comments about the tax package clearly indicate it will be handled much more sensitively than it was before.
Though Drapier thinks the individualisation argument turned out differently than some around here expected. If you look at the polls from early this year it had no discernible impact. Its benefits have already been seen in the take-home pay of the majority of families - those where more than one person works. No one loses money by it, it's just that working women get to keep more of what they earn. Because of this, all the signs are that Charlie McCreevy will go through with his plans and the political steam will go out of the issue because the Opposition is unlikely to campaign on further tax relief for middle-class housewives. You can be assured they won't promise to reverse the move, since this would be an effective tax increase for far too many voters.
Over the years, John Bruton has certainly spent a lot of time on the issue of Dail reform, and this is reflected in this week's publication from Fine Gael. It is at moments like this that Drapier thanks the Almighty for his tendency to hoard political memorabilia. So, after an exhaustive trawl of old manifestos, policy platforms and canvassing cards, Drapier managed to locate an old Fine Gael Policy on Dail Reform prepared, back in September 1979, by none other than John Bruton.
Then, John was a champion of Parliamentary Questions and was calling for an extra 1 1/2 hours per week for oral questions. When Drapier mentioned this to some of his colleagues this week they could be heard to mutter something about Bruton's Shane Kenny-inspired tendency as Taoiseach to avoid the media, be absent from Order of Businesses and only give full answers when asked "the right question". John has clearly come a long way from that callow youth back in 1979, and Drapier is not just talking about the loss of his Elvis-style sideburns.
Drapier detected an unusual strain of annoyance in Seamus Brennan's voice when he responded by pointing out that many of the proposals were already subject to all-party discussions. The publication was a clear signal that Fine Gael has no intention of allowing a consensus on Dail and political reform develop before the next election, where, they believe, it will be an issue.
Anyway, as the builders prepare to put the finishing touches to the new offices and committee rooms, Drapier looks forward to the next session. It will be fractious, loud and ill-tempered, but Drapier has a sneaking suspicion that this Dail has a little longer to run than is commonly presumed.
