A pony on the nose for Badly Drawn Boy. Decoded: it would be rather prudent of you to wager a small sum on Manchester act, Damon Gough, to win this year's Mercury Music Prize. If you had been paying attention last year you would have cleaned up on Talvin Singh (as I did, ha ha) who we predicted three months before the ceremony would win the damn thing. Also got it right with Gomez the previous year, just to hammer the point.
It's relatively easy to pick out the Mercury winner: just the usual thing of studying the form and having some idea where the judges are coming from. Since its inception in 1992, there have been a few iffy winners (M People in 1994 was surely a post-modern joke that got out of hand) but over the last few years the panel members have settled down into a curious pattern of not rewarding the best album on the shortlist, but that which they feel is the most "happening" and "culturally representative". They're also highly sensitive to sudden changes in the climate which is why I've put a side bet on M.J. Cole - like it or not, UK Garage is the musical movement of the moment.
In case you've forgotten, the Mercury (artistically speaking, the most prestigious music award going) is awarded to the best British or Irish album of the last 12 months. We haven't done too well in past years - the last Irish nomination, if memory serves, was Therapy? for Troublegum. There were murmurs early on of perhaps David Holmes or Moloko making the cut, but it didn't happen. And people who think Primal Scream's unlistenable Exterminator should be on the list are quite patently mad (yes, that means you Alan McGee). Here are the 12 nominees:
1. Coldplay: Parachutes. A really strong album, bolstered by the very fine singles, Shiver and Yellow. William Hill have this as favourites at 3/1, but it won't win because it's a bit too "straightforward" for the Mercury people.
2. Leftfield: Rhythm and Stealth. "This pushes the frontiers of British dance music," say the panel. No, it doesn't. That happened with their still-great debut, Leftism back in 1995. This ain't half as good. Still, the bookies have it at 4/1.
3. Richard Ashcroft: Alone With Everybody. Oh dear. Maybe they should have nominated Primal Scream after all. It's 4/1 but hasn't a hope.
4. M.J. Cole: Sincere. The master of two-step is in with a great chance if Badly Drawn Boy doesn't carry all the panel. Well worth a flutter at 7/1.
5. Death In Vegas: The Contino Sessions. All the garage rock meets psychedelia meets guest vocalists looking for cred can't propel this further than the nomination list. It's at 7/1.
6. Doves: Lost Souls. One of the best albums on the shortlist. The dance traitors might pay the price, though, for throwing out their Technics (who sponsor the awards). Still, a good long-shot at 10/1.
7. Badly Drawn Boy: The Hour of Bewilderbeast. Unbelievably this is out at 10/1. William Hill are now online - start clicking, pop-pickers.
8. Nitin Sawhney: Beyond Skin. Despite its many musical merits and without being too cynical about it, this won't win because the panel did the "Asian thing" last year with Talvin Singh. Shameful, I know. It's at 14/1.
9. The Delgados: The Great Eastern. I know a lot of people who think this should win. It's a great album but way out there at 16/1.
10. Helicopter Girl: How To Steal The World. Real name Jackie Joyce, Helicopter Girl is of Scots/Ghanaian descent. She's picking up most of the press coverage, mainly because no one had ever heard of her before this and the album only cost £3,000 to make. The proverbial dark horse, she's at 16/1.
11. Kathryn Williams: Little Black Numbers. Previously best known for guesting on a John Martyn album, this is all very singer-songwritery and lacking any real spark. 20/1.
12. Nicholas Maw: Violin Concerto. The token Classical nominee. The album (which is of curiousity value only) is performed by the London Philharmonic Orchestra. 20/1 but might as well be 2,000/1.
The winner of this year's Mercury Music prize will be announced at the Albums of the Year show, live on BBC TV and Radio, on September 12th.
