The silence of ETA's guns has created an almost eerie sense of expectation about the elections in the Basque country tomorrow. Every previous poll was dominated by a fear of shootings and bombings that had become almost familiar. This unexpected ceasefire, still fragile and barely a month old, has generated a lot of hope, but also a whole new set of anxieties. Peace seems more difficult, or at least more complex, than war.
When a million or so Basques go to the polls tomorrow the eyes of Spain will be on them as never before. Small elections have been known to cause seismic shocks in Spanish society. The municipal elections of 1931 sent King Alfonso XIII scurrying into exile, and ushered in the turbulent Second Republic.
No one expects this election to have such quite such dramatic consequences, but it has raised issues and passions that have not been widely aired since the transition from Franco's dictatorship to democracy in the late 1970s. The peace process in the Basque country coincides with the 20th anniversary of the democratic constitution that summed up that transition, and dares to suggest that it is not written in stone. A bit of dialogue may make all this clearer. Where is the Basque country? It straddles the north-western Pyrenees, with its coastline forming the elbow of the Bay of Biscay, from Bilbao in Spain to Bayonne in France.
Why is it in the news?
The radical nationalist group ETA, inspired by the Irish peace process, ended a 30-year campaign of violence against the Spanish security forces last month. Its political wing has persuaded the moderate nationalist parties, and the Communists, to create a "new majority" to go beyond the limits set by the Spanish constitution and seek Basque self-determination. The first test of this "unarmed strategy" comes in tomorrow's elections to the Basque autonomous parliament.
Is that a problem?
Yes. Some Spanish people think the sky will fall if the constitution is challenged.
Why?
Because the 1978 constitution was the deal done between democrats and former fascists. The alternative was said to be a rerun of the Spanish Civil War. It's a finely tuned and carefully balanced document, but most of the Basques did not think much of it, though it did provide them with an autonomous parliament.
What's that?
It is a regional body which governs three of the four Spanish-Basque provinces. It has significant economic, cultural and even security powers. Moderate Basque nationalists were happy enough with it, until recently, but ETA supporters always saw it as a sell-out. It does not include the fourth Basque-Spanish province, Navarre, which has its own parliament. Nor does it provide any link to the French Basques, who have no self-government, and don't show much interest in looking for it.
Who exactly are the Basques? Nobody knows for sure where they came from, but they have been in the same place for a longer time than most peoples in Europe. Probably for several thousand years.
What makes them Basques?
A touchy question. Some of them have distinguishing biological features, like a high incidence of a rare blood group, and strong noses. Basque nationalists used to stress these things; they stopped doing so, at least in public, after Hitler gave blood and race a bad name.
Franco never forgave them for supporting the Republic, although they were mostly Catholics. His crass repression of their language probably made them more Basque than they already were. The Basques possess a unique culture, with a rich variety of ethnic dances and some very strange sports, like rock-lifting. Above all, they have their own language. Some 30 per cent of them still speak Euskera, which is not Indo-European and baffles linguists.
What's it like?
Ezkerrik Asko means thank you, if you need a cupla focal.
What do the Basques really want now?
Some nationalists want full independence, not only for the three provinces which vote for their own government tomorrow, but also for Navarre, the fourth Spanish-Basque province, and the three small provinces in France. Others would settle for the quite extensive autonomy they enjoy at present. But they would all like to be given a choice.
But are all Basques nationalists?
Another touchy question. Some Basques feel Spanish (or French). More feel Spanish (or French) and Basque. Many are the children of Andalusian or Galician immigrant workers. For a long time, nationalists insisted that to be a true Basque you had to be a nationalist (and preferably ethnically pure). Non-nationalist Basques fear they would suffer discrimination in an independent state. So what happens after the elections?
The nationalists look likely to gain an overall majority in favour of renegotiating their constitutional position.
Will ETA stay on board if the deal is less than independence?
ETA is a an even more hermetic group than the IRA, and only its own leaders know why they signed up to a peace process. But did anyone ever imagine Martin McGuinness would risk being called a partitionist?
Will the Spanish government let the Basques renegotiate the constitution?
The Prime Minister, Jose Maria Aznar, is a conservative. But he needs the votes of the Basques (and the almost equally restless Catalans) to keep his minority government in power. He will be pragmatic.
What's the long-term scenario?
Felipe Gonzalez, socialist prime minister from 1982 to 1996, sounds more conservative than Mr Aznar now, and talks darkly of "undoing what we have achieved . . . and going the way of Sarajevo ". Basque nationalists, on the other hand, promise a Basque tiger economy, and a cultural Paris-sur-Biscay, in the happy context of a "Europe of the Peoples".
Which will it be?
Not as bad as the first, not as good as the second. If they do unstitch a bit of the constitution, the Catalans and others will not be backward in plucking out a few more strands. So will the sky fall, then?
Most unlikely. The last 20 years has been the most stable period of democracy in Spanish history. If they couldn't make some fundamental changes at this stage, then they would be in trouble.
