Never before has the first phase of a US presidential election been so compressed into the first three months of the year and made life so difficult for the candidates.
The election is not until November 7th, but those seeking the Democratic and Republican nominations are facing a frenzied timetable for the primary elections which means they must campaign non-stop from now until the end of March. They must also spend millions of dollars on TV advertising. By the time most of the primaries are over, the two men who will be the Democratic and Republican candidates for the November election will be known - there are no women since Elizabeth Dole dropped out - but the winners will have to wait for the party conventions in August to be formally ratified.
At this stage, Governor George Bush of Texas seems unstoppable. His only serious rival is Senator John McCain of Arizona.
On the Democratic side, Vice-President Al Gore is facing a determined challenge from former senator Bill Bradley, of New Jersey. In national polls, Gore is well ahead but behind in New Hampshire, where the first primary will be held on February 1st.
New Hampshire is grabbing all the attention just now. It is a small state with only 22 delegates for the Democratic convention, compared with 367 from California, but its position as the first primary of the presidential election gives it huge psychological importance. It can make or break a candidate.
Iowa kicks off these preliminary contests on January 24th with a quasi-primary called a "caucus", but it does not have anything like the impact of New Hampshire.
Bradley and McCain will have to win in New Hampshire to prove they are serious contenders. A defeat would put them in serious trouble and damage their fund-raising for the string of primaries they face, especially in March when there are almost 30 to be decided, including the crucial ones of California, New York, Florida and Texas.
At present, Bradley and McCain have a slight edge over Gore and Bush in New Hampshire, but even if they win, they will face increasingly tougher contests from opponents who have stronger national organisations and, in Bush's case, far more money.
The next big date is March 7th, when 13 states hold their primaries, including California and New York. On March 14th, most of the big southern states will be decided, including Florida and Texas. By the end of that day, Bradley and McCain will know whether they are still in contention.
The campaign proper will begin after Labour Day in early September. Alongside the presidential race will be the campaigns for the congressional elections and for the legislatures in the 50 states, as well as countless public offices down to dog-catchers.
In the presidential campaign, observers believe a Bush-Bradley contest would be very close, unlike Bill Clinton's runaway victory over Bob Dole in 1996. Polls now show that Al Gore would be less of a challenge to Bush than Bradley would be, but it is too early to call. Most Americans are said not to focus on a presidential election until the campaign proper begins in September and October.
With the US enjoying an era of unprecedented prosperity, the economy is not the kind of priority issue it would normally be in an election. Healthcare, retirement pensions, gun control, education and campaign finance are the issues most raised in the New Hampshire primary.
The Democratic debate between Gore and Bradley has got personal while ostensibly dealing with healthcare and education. Bradley portrays Gore as stuck in a "Washington bunker" and carrying baggage from abuses in campaign financing in 1996 and support for the President over the Monica Lewinsky affair.
There will almost certainly be a third party candidate in the November election representing the Reform Party, which was founded by billionaire industrialist Ross Perot, but it is divided between Perot's supporters and those of its rising star, Governor Jesse Ventura of Minnesota, a former professional wrestler. The former Republican candidate, Pat Buchanan, is seeking the party nomination, as is wealthy New York property developer Donald Trump, who has Ventura's backing.
In a close presidential race, the Reform candidate could damage either the Republican or Democratic candidate. Buchanan, if he runs, could take vital votes from Bush, as Perot did from his father in 1992, but it is very early days yet.
