Is this year's Mercury Music prize a mano-a-mano fight between The Arctic Monkeys and Amy Winehouse or will the judges surprise us, asks Brian Boyd

AT first glance, it would appear to be a celebrity death match between Arctic Monkeys and Amy Winehouse for this year's Nationwide Mercury Music Prize - but that might just be too predictable for the capricious Mercury folk. The judges have always struggled to walk the line between mainstream and genuinely novel music. When a band such as Franz Ferdinand win the prize, the award is accused of being boring and predictable; when the award goes to a an act such as Talvin Singh, it is accused of being obtuse.

And they have got it wrong too: everyone knew that Richard Hawley's sublime Cole's Corner was a better album than the Arctic Monkey's Whatever People Say I Am . . . last year - including the Arctic Monkeys themselves, who used their acceptance speech to apologise to Hawley for "stealing" his prize. The incriminating footage is on www.youtube.com.

Given that the award is for the British/Irish album of the year, Irish acts have performed spectacularly badly over the years - there have only been a handful of shortlisted Irish acts over the prize's 15-year history. This year the Bray, Co Wicklow singer-songwriter Fionn Regan finds himself the lone Irish presence.

While Irish claims that the judging panel (made up of largely of British media types and notable musicians) is too British can be put down to sore-loser syndrome, there is no doubting the fact that the biggest controversy in the Mercury's history was when Antony and the Johnsons beat local heroes Kaiser Chiefs for the 2005 prize. There was strong criticism at the time in the British media that Antony wasn't even English (he is) and his songs weren't "British". So maybe the Irish do have a point.

There remains the constant criticism that The Mercury is trying to do too much to please too many people. It views itself as an award which shines a light on those albums that have fallen under the radar of the mainstream media but still possess significant artistic merit.

However, over the last few years in particular, it has awarded the overall prize to established acts such as Arctic Monkeys and Franz Ferdinand.

There have long been calls for the Mercury to introduce a sales cut-off point figure such as that used by the award's US equivalent, the Shortlist Prize, whereby albums which have sold a certain amount are deemed ineligible. If this criterion had have been applied to this year's Mercury Prize it would have ruled out Arctic Monkeys and Amy Winehouse. The prize's media profile may have suffered, but at least it would have given Fionn Regan a realistic chance of winning.

You can listen to songs by all the nominated artists at www.myspace.com/mercuryprize