Almost a decade after Solidarity's overwhelming victory over the communists in Poland's first free election in the summer of 1989 the country's political system continues to reflect the great political divide of the 1980s.
Then it was Solidarity and its supporters, pushed into the undergound by martial law, who defied the communists led by general Wojciech Jaruzleski. Now both last year's parliamentary election and local government elections this autumn have seen the majority of voters chosing either the right wing Solidarity led block called the Solidarity Electoral Alliance (AWS) or the former communists grouped in the Left Democratic Alliance (SLD).
The polarisation has hurt the pro-business Freedom Union, whose roots are within Solidarity but whose heart and mind is with the free market. It is still in government but it is slowly being pushed to the political margins. The same is happening to the Labour Union, a left wing grouping which aspired to build a left wing non-former-communist-based movement.
Indeed even the rural Polish Peasant Party (PSL), a populist movement which unashamedly champions the farmers' cause, is finding itself sidelined as many of its traditional supporters plump for either the SLD or the AWS.
The divide, along historic lines looks set to continue, with the latest opinion polls showing that the AWS would win 33 per cent of the votes and the SLD 32 per cent in a parliamentary election. The Freedom Union would still manage to scrape up 12 per cent but the PSL is languishing at 6 per cent and the Labour Union at 5 per cent.
The two sides are almost equally balanced both outside parliament and within. The recent local government elections set the SLD and its left wing allies to rule in nine of Poland's 16 new provinces. The AWS and the Freedom Union will be ruling in seven. This is important as Poland's new local government reform has decentralised power and given the provinces greater financial responsibility.
In parliament the AWS and the Freedom Union have a majority but it is too small to overrule possible vetos by President Aleksander Kwasniewski, who is himself a former communist. This means that de facto the government's programme of social reforms which include changes to Poland's pension, health funding and social security systems, can only be put through in agreement with the President.
This situation has blunted the AWS's anti communist rhetoric and brought about a more consensual mood in politics. Even Marian Krzaklewski, the AWS leader, who is planning to stand for the presidency in 2000 has toned down his once combatative approach to President Kwasniewski. This appears to suit the mild mannered Jerzy Buzek, the pragmatic prime minister from the AWS who was a little known chemistry professor in Gliwice in the industrial district of Silesia just over 12 months ago.
THE irony of a split along historic lines is that it is becoming stronger even as Poland faces the challenge of modernisation posed by EU membership. However Aleksander Smolar, a politologist and adviser to the Freedom Union points out that even in the AWS whose political style is populist there is a "modernising elite". This means that the language of the AWS and the former communist SLD is populist but the policies which they follow once in power keep the economy on track. They also continue with privatisation and encourage foreign investment.
Thus the AWS has failed to mount a challenge to Leszek Balcerowicz, the Freedom Union leader who is also the finance minister whose tight budgetary policies have by and large been accepted by his trade union allies. And the SLD while in power between 1993 and 1997 presided over four years of growth when inflation continued to come down and productivity grew.
The two main political forces are also broadly in favour of Polish membership of the EU although the question has yet to surface with any strength in the political arena. The opinion polls are still showing that around two-thirds of the population favour EU entry although the number of no's and don't knows is also growing. However a eurosceptic grouping of any significance has yet to emerge.
Indeed the nationalist right wing Catholics represented by Radio Maryja suffered a defeat in the last local government elections. The Polish Peasant Party (PSL) is already playing on farmers' fears of what the EU might bring but that has yet to translate into votes.
The clash of interests that the membership talks will bring could erode support for EU membership. It will also fall if the membership talks drag on for too long or other central European countries are invited to join the EU and Poland is kept out. However people in Poland realise that there is really no alternative to EU membership. That should translate into a yes vote in the referendum on the issue.
