Barely a month ago, British and Irish government sources were telling journalists that the group known as the "Real IRA" was in disarray and could be finished as a terrorist organisation. The briefing was based on the fact that the Garda had made several arrests and that leading figures in the organisation were either behind bars or apparently no longer affiliated with the group.
However, senior police sources in the Republic and in the UK continued to urge caution. The group had previously shown its resilience and ability to handle penetration by agents and informants. Senior police officers were concerned that premature reports of the "Real IRA's" death might spur it to action. Thursday's night's bomb in London appears to have shown them correct.
The "Real IRA", it appears, has undergone a metamorphosis. It has a new leadership and has recruited and trained new members who have never previously come to the attention of the Garda or British authorities. The unit that has been operating somewhere, it seems, in west London has remained undetected for over a year. The "Real IRA" unit carried out its first attack in June last year using some of the plastic explosive smuggled from former Yugoslavia. The one-kilo blocks of explosive were designed by the Eastern bloc countries for the destruction of railway tracks.
A similar explosive device was planted at Acton in July last year. The next attack was the firing of an RPG22 rocket at the headquarters of the British Secret Services (MI6) at Vauxhall Bridge. The BBC studios at Wood Lane, Shepherd's Bush were attacked with a car bomb on March 3rd this year after the corporation transmitted a programme about the "Real IRA" and the Omagh bombing. This bomb was similar to the one which exploded on Thursday night at Ealing Broadway.
The postal delivery office at Hendon, off the Edgeware Road, was attacked on Saturday, April 14th. The same building was attacked again on Sunday, May 6th, the anniversary of the death of the hunger striker Bobby Sands in the Maze Prison in 1981.
Following this attack the authorities in Britain warned that the "Real IRA" might be intent on carrying out further attacks prior to the June general election.
Immediately after the attack, Mr David Veness, Scotland Yard's Assistant Commissioner of Specialist Operations, said there were "grounds for concern to fear present terrorist intentions to attack the election process".
Mr Veness said that London had been "reinforced" with extra armed police patrols, increased vehicle checks and "a specific focus on what we regard as particularly vulnerable locations". The principal effort is to ensure that closed-circuit cameras are monitored regularly to detect suspicious activities. Scotland Yard also appealed to the public to report anything suspicious. So far, these measures have proved inadequate but Thursday night's attack was in a bustling business area with many CCTVs.
No attacks took place and the "Real IRA" went remarkably quiet in Northern Ireland. This then led to the speculation that the group was riven by internal disputes and incapable of mounting attacks
In fact, the "Real IRA" had come under considerable pressure from the Garda and British and US authorities. A number of significant arms seizures were made by gardai who, it became clear, were acting on very good information.
"Real IRA" attacks stopped on the day of the British general election when some of its members fired shots at a polling station in Co Tyrone. There were no further attacks until Wednesday night's attempted bombing at Belfast International Airport, a space of around seven weeks.
It now appears the "Real IRA" has regrouped, with new people heading its military and political wings. The injuries sustained on Thursday night in Ealing are the worst caused by any "Real IRA" attack since the atrocity at Omagh. There must now be concerns that the new leadership has left behind what concerns there may have been about causing civilian death and injury.
