In a way the latest mini-crisis over inflation and fuel prices will be welcomed by the Government. It is not about cronyism, or sleaze and corruption allegations, but is a mini-crisis of overwhelming normality.

It is a sign of what senior Government figures say and hope is true: that the political agenda of the next period will be dominated by economics and the need to manage economic success. A government driven by economic issues as well as the need to handle the peace process with a sure hand is a normal government.

And, 39 months into its term, it badly needs a chance to be a normal government for a while before facing the electorate.

Because the most obvious question facing voters should a general election take place in the near future is: "Do you want this crisis-ridden Government to continue?" It is not a question the Coalition wants to be put to the voters in that form or at this time.

The Taoiseach, Tanaiste and Minister for Finance are freshly bruised from the O'Flaherty affair; further scrutiny of Fianna Fail's fairly recent past is imminent at the Flood and Moriarty tribunals; deep anger festers among elements of the PDs at the handling of recent events; and the polls conducted for the press and the political parties confirm Ministers' belief that if the electorate is asked that question any time soon, it will say No.

The clear strategy of both Government parties is to postpone and then change the question. It will not be easy, and will not be done in a few months. It will require time, and for this reason Bertie Ahern's oft-stated determination that the Government will serve close to a full five-year term - which need not end until June 2002 - should be seen as more than the usual Taoiseach's rhetoric.

There are clear signs now of a Government trying to reshape its internal workings and its image. During the summer Fianna Fail had a series of soul-searching internal meetings at senior level. Ministers have been told that self-inflicted crises are to end. All potentially contentious initiatives have to be cleared through the Taoiseach's office. Damaging controversies such as the long standoff between Mr McCreevy and the credit unions will no longer be allowed to drag on.

"Getting our message across" is the key phrase among senior politicians and advisers as they face into a new season. Each individual Minister has been told to achieve results rather than simply publish plans, and then to tell the public about them. Centrally, the Government Press Office has been reorganised and given additional resources in an attempt to shape the Coalition's message rather than simply respond to daily press queries about the latest crisis. The Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, is making a concerted effort to reshape his image (see panel).

There are few senior figures who will not now mention "social inclusion" in the course of a conversation about the coming political season. Senior sources maintain they have done a lot on social inclusion, but the press hasn't noticed it but continues to write regularly about the numbers being left behind by the economic boom.

Mr Ahern himself indicated last week in New York that the less-well-off would benefit in particular from the next Budget. Mr McCreevy wrote in this newspaper this week of his awareness of the Government's commitment to reduce the burden of income tax, "particularly for the low-paid".

It seems clear that the next Budget will be sold as a social inclusion budget (in regard to income tax they can hardly do worse than the last Budget, which not only gave the better-off more money, but gave them more pro rata compared with the lower-paid).

An adviser with serious social policy expertise has been working full time in Mr Ahern's office since early this year, co-ordinating and devising social inclusion initiatives. Senior figures say significant initiatives to benefit the elderly and to improve the health services can be expected.

The passage of time will not only allow Fianna Fail to try to install itself as the party of equality and fairness. Senior figures also hope it will allow them take at least some of the initiative from the Opposition on the sleaze and standards issue during the next general election campaign.

Although they have no monopoly on past political misconduct, it is Fianna Fail figures who are at the centre of most of the allegations currently being investigated by the tribunals. They lost a minister (Ray Burke) and two backbenchers (Denis Foley and Liam Lawlor) in the storm, while the reputation of a former leader (Charles Haughey) is in tatters, while another former minister (Padraig Flynn) faces very serious questions.

To be able to say convincingly that they have made a break from that past, they want to be the party that takes action arising from the tribunal reports. While the Flood tribunal may go on and on, the Government believes the Moriarty tribunal may report in the second half of next year. This could allow them to take whatever action is necessary as a result.

In addition, a series of Government proposals on standards in public office, reforming the corruption laws - possibly even on party funding - are expected by the end of this year. Being able to point to changes in the law and to action on Moriarty should at least blunt the Opposition attack on them on this issue during the campaign, they believe.

Fianna Fail therefore wants to face the people with almost the entire Programme for Government implemented, with the Moriarty tribunal finished and having reported, lessons learned, new legislation in place and a chance to portray itself as the party that is dealing with the tribunal mess, rather than the party mired in it.

Coupled with this it fancies being able to trumpet astonishing economic statistics, tax pledges all met, inflation under control again, close to zero unemployment and a visible start to building the transport systems now required as well as a dent in the house-price crisis.

To this end it talks of introducing two more budgets, which would involve survival into early 2002. It's a very tall order, and one which, judging on past experience, seems highly unlikely.

The one thing in its favour is the fact that the three components of the Government majority - Fianna Fail, the Progressive Democrats and the four pro-government Independents - all have strong reasons to keep this administration going.

Fianna Fail's reasons have already been stated. The Progressive Democrats are also recovering from serious internal grief over the O'Flaherty affair, and are hoping their conference in Cork in November will allow for a virtual party relaunch, with Michael McDowell (they hope) being unveiled in a new position back at the heart of the party.

They also want to stay around long enough to publish and act on the results of the plethora of inquiries into alleged financial wrongdoing initiated by Mary Harney. They, too, are hoping for a position back in the vanguard of the anti-sleaze movement, and it will take time to get there.

The Independents show little sign of jumping ship either. Harry Blaney has said he is likely to retire at the next election; Jackie Healy-Rae is considered highly unlikely to bring down a Fianna Fail-led Government; all four are getting high profiles in their constituencies announcing benefits given to them by the Government in exchange for their support; while it is not beyond the Government's ingenuity to manage the abortion issue in a manner that will keep them on board.

The factor that may thwart their hopes of staying on and on is the one that has diverted attention from their preferred policy agenda over the past 39 months - events.

The tribunals will resume later this month, and are likely once more to throw up allegations and evidence concerning past doings by senior Fianna Fail figures. It is impossible to predict whether they could produce something serious enough to drive the PDs from office.

Alternatively, unless their rhetoric about learning from the O'Flaherty affair is serious, they could bring themselves down with no help from anyone.