It's not so much a case of Ulster will fight; Ulster will be right as Ulster will spin; Ulster will win. When Lord Randolph Churchill uttered his famous anti-Home Rule motto in 1886, the art of spin-doctoring had yet to be invented.
Changed times, different methods. The battle over the future of unionism has been fought in the media and over the telephone. But it has been landlines rather than cellphones, and Postman Pat instead of e-mail.
David Trimble has won the media battle, as the establishment side usually does. But the real campaign has been waged in the background, through small meetings, discreet chats, telephone canvassing and "mailshots" to the homes of Ulster Unionist Council members.
Last weekend there was just a touch of euphoria in the air on the Yes side. The opponents of the Stormont deal were amateurs, had never been tested or stood up to before, lacked media skills and did not have a properly worked-out alternative.
The picture is different now. The confidence among Trimble supporters that he would win by a reasonable margin has declined. Further details of the quiet professionalism of the No campaign has emerged.
A number of young UUP members were brought to the US - ironically, as part of the peace process - to attend courses in political leadership and technique. They were particularly impressed by the methods of the Democratic Party, especially the concept that voters can be broken down into "six categories of persuadability".
First of all, the No people hired a marketing research company to set up "focus groups", mainly composed of UUC delegates, to tease out the issues. From these sessions, the No camp was able to identify the subjects that should be avoided and those that ought to be highlighted.
The sturdy Ulster folk who make up the bulk of UUC delegates do not like public attacks on the leader; they are uncomfortable with expressions like "stalking horse" and find the word "split"
extremely repellent. At the same time there is uncertainty about the small print of the deal that is on offer. Comments by republican spokesmen last weekend did nothing to ease their fears and few people have forgotten the Florida gunrunning episode and the murder of Charles Bennett during the summer.
Yet there is an anxiety to move on. Common sense dictates that the IRA ceasefire is a positive development which should not lightly be brought down. When the first item on the radio news is an Ulster Unionist Assembly member allegedly having his tyres let down by anti-agreement yobbos, we really are on the verge of a new dawn in Northern Ireland.
On the Yes side, the Northern Secretary, Peter Mandelson, has helped by swinging the George Cross for the RUC. Some of his remarks about a "default mechanism" in the event of an IRA failure to decommission also helped, although they caused ominous rumblings on the republican side. His sombre mien and Mayhew-like speech delivery have at least contributed to the feeling that this man with such a colourful past is no threat.
Mr Trimble has been calm and relaxed for the most part in his interviews. His measured tones contrasted with his more combative approach in the past. He has resisted the temptation to score debating points and, while his new style may be low on entertainment value, at least it helps to steady the nerves of his flock.
Battle will be joined at 10 a.m. today. There are six scheduled speakers for each side and, after that, there may be about four others from the body of the hall. For some rural UUC delegates it will be a first visit to that shiny icon of modern-day Belfast, the Waterfront Hall. This venue has been used by Mr Trimble on previous occasions, to send his message that the times they are achanging.
It was wise not to hold the meeting in the Ulster Hall, which has the same resonance to unionist minds as the GPO in Dublin has for nationalists and republicans.
One does not have to believe in the tenets of feng shui to accept that a modernising message is more easily put across in a modernist setting and that shouts of betrayal tend to be more believable when they are made on hallowed ground.
Latest reports suggest that many delegates are still undecided. It is much easier to be hardline in public, and the No camp has had more people willing to testify aloud. The Yes people are quieter and more reserved: no point in drawing fire on yourself. It can even be dangerous, as Mr Mandelson himself found out at Portadown on Tuesday night when he and Mr Trimble were given police protection from protesting loyalists.
THE No camp in the UUP would disown such behaviour, of course: it's not their style and, besides, does considerable damage to the cause. The "dirty tricks" letter in the name of Sinn Fein was another counterproductive move, whatever its provenance. It was bound to surface in public and be discredited.
Much may depend on Mr Trimble's speech this morning. He was said to have gone into purdah to write it yesterday. The usual contributors who helped with his Oslo oration have not been recruited on this occasion, although some of them have offered ideas all the same. This will be all Mr Trimble's own work, although he is likely to consult his wife, Daphne, whose counsel and guidance he clearly values above all others.
Interviewed in the Daily Mail yesterday, Ms Trimble was in no doubt as to the consequences of failure. "If the vote goes against him, that would be it for David. We've discussed it absolutely calmly, and we know it would be the end of his political career," she said.
In his speech to last month's UUP conference in Enniskillen, Mr Trimble recalled how, two years earlier, he and his wife had discussed the "possible outcomes" of the multi-party talks at Stormont. "She predicted that I would probably obtain just enough support at each stage to go on, but that it would be a constant uphill struggle," he said.
Ms Trimble was right, and most observers still believe the UUP leader can come through today's challenge successfully. However, the estimated margin of victory has been revised downwards all week.
Already, even in advance of today's vote, controversy is welling up on the issue of Mr Seamus Mallon's resignation as Deputy First Minister last July. It was never accepted, therefore it was not valid, says the Alliance Party. Oh, yes, it was accepted, by Mo Mowlam in the House of Commons, says the DUP. To borrow John Hume's trademark phrase, Northern Ireland may not be spilling her blood but she is certainly spilling her sweat.
