The republican movement has been given five days in which its intentions will be subject to intense speculation. As with all of their periods in the limelight, they are expected to use it to the full.

Today the focus switches to Castlebellingham, Co Louth, where Sinn Fein's ardchomhairle will discuss the document published by the two governments on Wednesday.

They are unlikely to give a definitive response, but are expected to point to missing details on policing and criminal justice reform which they say must be given to them before they can form a judgment.

Sinn Fein's comments after today's meeting are unlikely to give a clear indication as to whether the IRA intends to make a substantial move on the weapons issue in response to the document. For that, we must await the IRA statement that is expected over the weekend or even later.

The IRA's words, together with Gen de Chastelain's judgment of the paramilitary group's intentions, will determine whether Mr Trimble can return to the North's Executive as First Minister having achieved the movement his party seeks on decommissioning.

Today's ardchomhairle meeting is, therefore, not a crucial gathering but a high-profile staging post in the republican movement's deliberations. Already, party figures have been saying it is impossible for them to form a judgment on the document until they have further information.

"Clarification" - for which Sinn Fein spent close to a year calling for after the Downing Street Declaration - is on the agenda again. The party president Mr Gerry Adams said on Wednesday he wanted clarification in a number of areas.

"How can we make a judgment on what's on offer on policing until we see the implementation plan," asked a Sinn Fein spokesman yesterday. The same applied, he said, to the promised implementation plan for a review of the criminal justice system. "We need details," the spokesman said, adding that they would also like to see drafts of the amendments that are to be made to policing legislation to take account of their concerns.

Mr Adams is likely to repeat the calls for these details when talking to the press around lunchtime today after the 40 or so members of the ardchomhairle have held their discussions.

The location of the meeting will undoubtedly serve a separate purpose - Louth is one of the constituencies targeted by Sinn Fein for the next general election, and the party's candidate, Mr Arthur Morgan, is likely to be positioned close to Mr Adams's shoulder as he faces the cameras today.

The huge media interest in the crisis in the peace process will ensure a high press attendance and widespread publicity.

It is not an unimportant point. Observers of the republican movement say their response to the latest attempt to break the deadlock will be based entirely on what they see to be in their best interests. One of Sinn Fein's great interests at the moment is in winning new Dail seats in the next general election and building up other candidates - such as Mr Morgan - for future attempts on the Dail.

To that end, the republican movement will be making a calculation - will potential Sinn Fein supporters in the Republic turn against them if IRA intransigence is seen to damage the peace process?

They will be aware of the signs that the indulgence shown towards Sinn Fein by the Republic's political establishment, and in particular by the Government, may be coming to an end. In the wake of the Nice Treaty referendum defeat, ministers were taken aback not only by the result but by the high profile achieved by Sinn Fein during the party's campaign against Nice.

The Minister for Foreign Affairs took a more robust line against Sinn Fein during that campaign. Photo opportunities with the Taoiseach on the steps of Government Buildings appear to have ended. Ministers privately talk angrily about how the party has used its access to the Government to build its profile. They complain that Sinn Fein leaders and Dail candidates received copious news coverage as the Government shied away from criticising the party for fear of turning it away from the political process.

Backbenchers in certain areas have begun to complain about what they say are vigilante activities by republicans.

The optimists argue that the need to nurture support in the Republic before the next election and to copperfasten their preferred image as the "peace party" will lead them to make a big enough move on weapons to satisfy Mr Trimble's concerns and allow the institutions begin to operate smoothly once more.

But electoral prospects in the Republic are not the republican movement's only concern. In deciding whether to make a historic concession, they will also be considering whether the survival of the Belfast Agreement in its present form, and the survival of the current Ulster Unionist Party leadership, is in their best interests.

The pessimists argue that it may not be. The collapse of the political institutions and the emergence of a harder-line UUP leadership would undoubtedly lead to the British government taking back the modicum of power it devolved to the failed assembly, executive and North/South bodies.

The pessimists say the exercise of authority over Northern Ireland by the British government in close co-operation with Dublin, accompanied by a further crisis in unionism, could be seen by republicans as better furthering their agenda.

Today's ardchomhairle meeting will not provide the answer to these questions but the IRA's expected statement over the next few days might well do so. The parties have all been asked to give their response by Monday, while the deadline for Mr Trimble to be saved and fresh elections to be avoided is Sunday week.

But speculation persists that the British government could perform a procedural manoeuvre to buy a further six weeks of negotiating time. Apparently a technical suspension of the institutions for a day, followed by their reinstatement, could do just this. While this could be seen to be a piece of trickery, it would also postpone an assembly election of which many supporters of the agreement are fearful.

And with the calls for details of implementation plans and other clarifications, the governments could just have sufficient excuse to be tempted.