Yeltsin fitness causes post poll concern

IT has been billed as the most important election in Russians history

IT has been billed as the most important election in Russians history. TV advertisements show a future, democratic Russia in which the date figures prominently. There is a July 3rd street, a July 3rd metro station and a July 3rd military academy. The most dramatic footage portrays a nuclear submarine, July 3rd, heaving to the surface of a stormy sea.

President Yeltsin also resurfaced yesterday after a mysterious five day absence but his re-emergence on the political scene was far less striking than the submarine's.

Appearing on TV in an address to the nation Mr Yeltsin looked heavily made up, and was hesitant in his speech. His appearance belied his statement that he had the strength and determination to lead Russia for another four years.

His disappearance - he was last seen on Wednesday when he was shown on TV toasting a group of newly graduated officer cadets - caused serious worries about his health and these where not dispelled by his wooden TV appearance in which there was little sign of the laryngitis given as an explanation for his absence.

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Worries over Mr Yeltsin's health have shifted the focus from the election to the possible events after tomorrow's poll.

Apart from the obvious questions about his ability to survive another four years in office, there are storm clouds over the Russian economy and serious doubts about commitments to democracy by Mr Yeltsin and his more prominent aides, particularly the new security chief, Gen Alexander Lebed.

Tax revenues and industrial production have begun to fall and there is a general consensus that should the trend continue Russia will face a major economic crisis in the autumn.

Earlier suggestions in the proYeltsin campaign that victory for the communist candidate, Mr Gennady Zyuganov, would lead to economic collapse have been dropped. It appears the collapse could take place no matter who wins.

ON THE democratic front, Mr Yeltsin from an early stage in the campaign has managed to convey the idea of a two horse race between the "democratic candidate" (himself) and the "communist candidate" (Mr Zyuganov).

Mr Yeltsin's democratic credentials have been tarnished by the war in Chechnya in which 40,000 people, mainly civilians, have died, while Mr Zyuganov's campaign has been marked by views closer to old style Russian imperialism than to communism.

But control of the three main TV stations obliterated the campaigns of democratic candidates such as Mr Grigory Yavlinsky. After the first round on June 16th the two horse race became a reality with Mr Yeltsin and Mr Zyuganov qualified to meet each other in tomorrow's run off.

The extreme bias on the two state controlled channels and the one commercial channel, whose director general is a member of Mr Yeltsin's campaign team, was criticised by election oh servers from the OSCE but this went virtually unreported in Russia.

In one newspaper I visited in the course of the campaign the political editor had Yeltsin election posters plastered on the wall beside her desk while the official news agency, ItarTass, houses the media headquarters of the Yeltsin campaign. But deputy prime minister Mr Vitaly Ignatenko insists that the "media have behaved honourably during the campaign". Mr Ignatenko is also director general of Itar Tass.

Shopkeepers in Moscow have also reported that they have been instructed by the city government to display anti communist posters in their windows.

Fears for Russian democracy were heightened by statements from Gen Lebed, who described Mormons as "mould and scum" who should be kicked out of Russia. He also called for severe visa restrictions on foreigners and the rating of countries - according to their "friendliness" towards Russia.

GEN Lebed has rowed back on some of his more extremist remarks and is very popular following his sacking of the hated defence minister, Gen Pavel Grachev, the federal security chief, Gen Mikhail Barsukov and Mr Yeltsin's close friend, Gen Alexander Korzhakov, a shadowy KGB general who ran the 30,000 strong presidential guard.

But Gen Korzhakov was reported still to be at his desk in the Kremlin and may be given a major post after the election if, as the opinion polls suggest, Mr Yeltsin wins.

Russian polls are notoriously inaccurate but the trend shows that Mr Yeltsin will gain a narrow victory over Mr Zyuganov if there is a turnout of over 60 per cent.

It is what happens after Mr Yeltsin's victory that counts. Gen Lebed has already called for the restoration of the post of vice president, which would give automatic succession to the presidency in the event of death or serious illness. Some observers are saying that he may already be pulling the strings.

Despite all Mr Yeltsin's shortcomings he is still probably the better of two evils when compared to Mr Zyuganov But if the vote is close, he is likely to co opt communists into his new cabinet and adopts several of their policies. Mr Zyuganov, in this context, has already claimed victory.

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin is a former international editor and Moscow correspondent for The Irish Times