Green Property a happier camp having cast off negative stock market sentiment

Just a year ago, Stephen Vernon, managing director of Green Property, was almost at the point of despair

Just a year ago, Stephen Vernon, managing director of Green Property, was almost at the point of despair. Despite strong earnings and net asset per share growth, the stock markets continued to cast a negative spell over Green's shares. But now he is a very much happier camper.

After announcing bumper results for 2000 - earnings per share up 54 per cent to 49.11 cents and net asset values (NAV) per share 30 per cent higher at €10.56 - the shares are more than 40 per cent higher than a year ago. "There has been a complete change of sentiment towards property companies," Mr Vernon enthuses. "Perhaps what has changed is the perception that to be successful, you have to be very large."

Part of this changed focus has been due to the spotlight directed at the group by Mr Vernon's management buyout (MBO) attempt. "I have no regrets at all in having investigated the idea whether a management buyout would have been a good result for the shareholders. I had no shortage of people willing to put up the capital."

But during the investigation a number of things happened. Firstly, NAV growth was running at a higher rate than anticipated. "Then, the capital provider thought this was an opportunity to perhaps do a cheap deal, which was never the intention, so I decided to disassociate myself from the MBO, which I did." He stresses that he had "never made any proposal to the non-executive directors, I instead announced we were not going to do an MBO".

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Another interested party was a consortium of Deutsche Bank Real Estate Private Equity and Treasury Holdings (the last the company which recently lost its preferred bidder status for London's Dome). Mr Vernon has decided views about that approach. "What happened after the attempted MBO was entirely speculation," he said. "Treasury came along and there was a certain amount of speculation whether there was going to be an offer for Green. It takes an awful amount of money to make an offer for Green and there was never an offer, despite what was said at the time, and the board never had anything at all to consider - and eventually Treasury accepted they were not in a position to make an offer."

Afterwards, the board pondered on its next move, and Mr Vernon asked: "Where are we now?" The outcome was the share buyback: there have been no decisions on any further buybacks.

But he is fairly adamant that, in future, shareholders will not be tapped for funds. "I don't see ourselves going to shareholders looking for more money. You can never say never, but at the moment it looks to me that the era of rights issues and raising capital is history - so what we need to do is to use the capital we have." As he sees it, the various components of the group would then compete for the available cash in the business.

One troublesome situation for Green Property has been its outlet mall scheme in Killarney. At first this was delayed, missing the 1999 tourist season. The company is now trying to fill remaining vacant space. "We are disappointed by the letting programme. The development is slightly ahead of its time," he says.

However, Mr Vernon says the Killarney development is "40 per cent let; the traders who are in there are trading extremely well. We have a raft of new tenants with whom we are in negotiations who will take the thing up more substantially." And he remains "very confident in the long run".

Asked about the group's exposure there, he says the investment stands at about £10 million (€12.69m) at present, and is yielding about 5 per cent. "We are hoping we will have that up to double figures soon. I'm confident about Killarney. I'm glad we built it. We had a very difficult time launching it because of its remoteness."

Green has confined its businesses to this state and the UK, but why not expand into Continental Europe? "We have not been targeting Europe for direct investment simply because there are better opportunities in our home territories. You must operate from a position of expertise.

There are no Irish people working in Green UK - not that I have anything against Irish people - but we have got locals; that is my point. We are an indigenous business. And we are a very hands-on group, and that is why to go into Europe would be an enormous step."

So is such an expansion ruled out entirely? "You can never say never, but if the opportunity dried up in Ireland and the UK then we may go prospecting there - but we would have to get over this problem of local expertise," he says. As he sees it, he does not feel he could be "a better investor in Madrid than a local".

But what about lost opportunities elsewhere? Specifically, how does he feel about the Cosgrave purchase of a site of around 20 acres adjacent to Green's successful Blanchardstown development? Should Green not have purchased that site and reaped the benefits from its own hard work? "With hindsight I wished we had bought it, of course, but at the time we had 31 acres to develop. Hindsight is a great thing. I admit it would have been better if we had been much more aggressive."

He points to the substantial commitment involved and other developments including "60,000 sq ft that is being built by Penneys, and we are seeking planning for 150,000 sq ft of retail space, so there is a lot going on". He stresses: "It increases critical mass . . . it is a good thing."

Indeed, Mr Vernon is very optimistic about the Blanchardstown development. Apart from the new developments, rent reviews come into play in October. Also, "a lot of our Dublin office portfolio is due for rent reviews this year" - and this includes the Setanta and Ardilaun centres.

Asked about the rent increases, he says rents at the moment are in the low teens and "we would expect substantial increases".

A few years ago Mr Vernon predicted that Green would soon be among the top real estate companies in Europe. Has it reached this goal? "Well, in terms of our performance, I believe I am not aware of any quoted real estate companies in Europe that, over five years, produced better than 35 per cent annual NAV growth. Individual companies may be ahead of that in individual years." But if the measurement is on the basis of a consistent record over five years, "then we are there".

Property worth about £100 million sterling is earmarked for sale in the UK this year, while developments worth another £50 million are in progress.

In Ireland there will be some sales. "I'm not quite sure which buildings. We are doing an analysis at the moment, but we won't be selling Blanchardstown," he adds, with a wide grin.