No good news in new CSO index - but KBC sees glimmer of light

THE CSO’s new residential property price index published yesterday is telling the same old story – house prices drifting down…

THE CSO’s new residential property price index published yesterday is telling the same old story – house prices drifting down yet again for the umpteenth month in a row.

Nationally, prices have now fallen an average of 41 per cent from the peak recorded in 2007, while house prices in Dublin are now 46 per cent below peak levels.

The CSO figures, published monthly, are based on on drawn down mortgages.

However, Sherry FitzGerald, the country’s largest estate agency chain begs to differ.

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Its price index, which is based on a repeat valuation of a basket of properties nationwide, shows a much greater level of deflation, down 51.1 per cent from peak nationally, and down 55.8 per cent in Dublin over the same period.

And that’s just for now. Its next next results will be available on June 30th with early indications from the agency showing price deflation in Dublin is likely to be in the order of 59 per cent from peak with 54 per cent deflation recorded nationwide.

Meanwhile lending data shows that funding for house purchase is nearing a 40-year low.

There has been a 93 per cent fall in loans arranged since Q1, 2006 – the year the property market peaked.

Meanwhile, KBC sees a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel, for Dublin property owners at least. CSO data, it says, shows a surprise rise in Dublin house prices between April and May of 0.4 per cent.

It would be premature, says KBC to suggest this points towards a turnaround in Dublin property conditions.

“We think the May data probably owe more to statistical quirks than a turnaround, given the scale of uncertainty in relation to income and credit prospects that prevailed across the Irish economy in early 2011.

“However, upcoming house price releases will be watched closely for evidence that a more positive interpretation of property market conditions is warranted.”

In other words, fingers crossed!