Report finds SSIAs will have major impact on house prices

The elephant in the room for many in the property market at the moment is the Special Savings Incentive Account (SSIA) scheme…

The elephant in the room for many in the property market at the moment is the Special Savings Incentive Account (SSIA) scheme, which will begin to mature in May of next year.

All across the economy, potential house-hunters - many of whom have SSIAs of their own - are wondering whether it makes sense to buy now or to wait until the scheme has been absorbed into the economy.

When all the pennies have been totted up and handed out, the scheme will lead to the release of €5 billion into our collective wallets. Most payouts will come in 2007, because most account-holders opened their SSIAs as the five-year scheme drew to a close in 2002. Within this, the average payout, according to an analysis from Goodbody Stockbrokers, will be €13,800. Given that about 44 per cent of account-holders are saving the maximum of €254 per month, however, many individuals are likely to receive closer to €18,000.

The question for property market-watchers, of course, is whether or not this is a sufficiently large amount to have a measurable effect on house prices and demand for mortgages.

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With this in mind, IIB Homeloans this week published some research on how the maturing accounts would affect the property market in general.

While Goodbody said last month that SSIAs would not add fuel to house price inflation - because the average payout is too small - IIB Homeloans sees the accounts as having "a major impact on property demand".

"It appears that a significant number of SSIA holders view them as property savings accounts," says Austin Hughes, IIB's chief economist. Mr Hughes argues that the accounts will give many people "the wherewithal to get on to or move up the property ladder".

As a result of this, Mr Hughes believes, more houses will be needed in the Republic.

He reckons that the accounts could boost demand for housing by 16,000 extra properties in the next few years. He also expects there to be some "front-loading" of spending, which will boost the housing market in 2006.

Presuming this comes to pass, it could be expected to lead to a combination of house price growth and some additional construction.

The IIB Homeloans study goes on to find that one in eight SSIA holders will spend some of their windfall on home improvements, giving a €1 billion boost to this sector and, in the process, adding value to their properties.

This might seem like a staggering number, but it is positively small when placed beside the amount by which Mr Hughes believes the State's "property wealth" will be boosted over the coming two years.

Even without SSIAs, IIB Homeloans judges that our property wealth will increase by about €22 billion between now and 2007.

The bank also finds that SSIA holders, who number more than one million, are 50 per cent more likely to buy property in the next two years than people who don't hold the accounts.

This will translate, according to the analysis, into an extra €7.5 billion of property demand.

While the actual post-SSIA result will not necessarily match this estimate, it will be worth bearing in mind for anybody considering buying a property.

In simple terms, it could mean that the market will get busy in 2006, and even busier in 2007, thus putting pressure on the supply of houses and, by extension, on prices.

Mortgage lenders will meanwhile be rubbing their hands with glee.

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey is Digital Features Editor at The Irish Times.