Dublin is on the verge of cinema screen overload, with 98 screens and proposals for several multiplex cinemas in the pipeline. "At this point the market is nearing saturation point," says Fintan Tierney of Lambert Smith Hampton.
He believes there is scope for some smaller suburban "infill developments" of five to six screens but that many parts of Dublin are now amply catered for.
His company is joint commercial agent with Hamilton Osborne King for the Pavilions shopping centre in Swords in Co Dublin, which is expected to include a plan for a cinema in its planning application to Fingal County Council for its proposed second phase.
Large-scale cinemas in Dublin's suburbs include the UCIs in Coolock, Blanchardstown and Tallaght, which have 31 screens between them, the 15-screen Ster Century in Liffey Valley and the 12-screen IMC in Dun Laoghaire. Other cinemas include the Omniplex in Santry, and the Ormonde in Stillorgan.
There are also plans for an 11-screen multiplex cinema in Dundrum. UK company Stannifer received planning permission for an eight-screen cinema as part of an £80 million (101.6m) leisure and entertainment complex off the M1 in Santry. The development has yet to go ahead.
Karl Milne of UCI says while he disagrees that the market is close to overload, he does believe that both developers and cinema companies need to be selective in choosing locations.
"There are potentially successful development sites in Dublin, particularly in the south-east of the city and there is potential in the city centre. The mistake that has been made in some international markets by cinema companies is that they are building right next to each other and therefore competing for the same catchment."
UCI have had ongoing discussions with Carlton Developments about reopening the Carlton Cinema on O'Connell Street.
According to Milne, when new cinemas open in Dublin there can be shifts in market share but "the general trend is towards growth in admissions and these openings have increased the overall market." He says the arrival of the Ster Century in Liffey Valley has affected the market share of UCI's nearby cinemas but he says that Ster Century "has opened up the market even further and increased business on the Lucan corridor."
Eithne Ryan of Carlton Screen Advertising says there is still room for growth. "We are expecting a 5 per cent increase in admissions on last year. Ireland has the highest number of admissions per capita in Europe as going to the cinema is now an integral part of our culture."
According to figures supplied by Carlton Screen Advertising, twice as many people are going to the cinema in the Republic as 10 years ago and the number of screens has risen by 83 per cent. In 1992 the top 10 box office films grossed £6.65 million (8.44m). Last year that figure was £15.7 million (19.93m).
The number of films released each year has risen from 136 in 1995 to 175 last year. Last year there were 14.9 million admissions in the Republic and 7.2 million in Dublin. Almost half the cinema audience is aged 15-24, with 33 per cent in the 25-34 age group.
Eithne Ryan disputes that the M50 corridor which is served by the UCIs in Blanchardstown and Tallaght and the Ster Century in Liffey Valley is over-provided for.
"We don't think so. The Ster Century for example caters for people from Leixlip and Celbridge who may not want to travel as far as Blanchardstown to go to a film.That whole area is very densely populated."
Smaller cinemas have been falling like dominoes since the number and quality of the multi and omniplex auditoriums began to proliferate. Some of the specialist cinemas like the Lighthouse on Abbey Street have been sacrificed to the homogenised theatres. The Forum in Glasthule, one of the last old cinemas in Dublin, closed in September 1999 and the future of the Classic in Harold's Cross is rumoured to be under discussion.
"When multinationals came here, some of the independent local cinema owners realised if they wanted to survive they needed to invest. The Bray Cineplex and the Ormonde in Stillorgan are examples of this."
The main players in the Dublin market are the UCI, a joint venture company between Universal and Paramount; UGC, which bought 34 Virgin Cinemas in October 1999 for £215 million sterling; Ward Anderson, which runs the Savoy, Screen, Omniplex and Cineplex cinemas; and the IMC and Ster Kinekor, owner of the , omni- and cineplexes in Dublin are attached to shopping centres. "There is a good synergy between the two," says Fintan Tierney. "Cinemas increase the dwell-time of shoppers."
However, while saturation point is imminent, we are unlikely to experience the kind of large-scale bankruptcy that has affected cinemas in the US, believes Leo Ward of Ward Anderson, which has more than 30 cinemas in the Republic and in Northern Ireland and has had a policy of transforming and demolishing old cinemas to make way for shiny new ones.
It owns older cinemas in Mullingar, Ballina and Arklow, but in each case is hoping to redevelop four to five-cinema sites.
"It is less likely to happen here. The position in Northern Ireland is worse. With the road system up there, you might have cinemas only 10 miles from each other which with the motorway, are only a 10 to 15 minute drive apart."
Increased competition has lead to the maximising of non-ticket revenue from refreshments and merchandise. "These are an extremely important part of the business and have become part of the cinema experience," says Karl Milne, of UCI, which opened its first multiplex in Tallaght in 1990. Ticket prices have almost doubled over the last six years from £2.60 to over £5 (6.35) in most Dublin cinemas for adults after 6 p.m. Fintan Tierney believes there are more opportunities for development in the provincial market. "As some towns grow in size, there is a very poor number of cinemas. Cavan had a two-screen complex and that closed and it now has a six-screen complex opened by First Class Cinemas."
Ward Anderson is one of the biggest niche operators with generally four to eight-screen cinemas in towns like Clonmel, Tullamore, Drogheda, Waterford, Wexford, Killarney and Carlow.
According to one industry source, cinema attendance patterns are different across the Border, where there were 4.5 million admissions last year. "In the North, they tend to go out only at the weekend, not during the week. You are working with a lesser amount of patrons but when they do come, they come out in their droves. Cinema admissions in the south have remained steady but often you are depending on product. A cinema is only as good as its films."
