Talking Property

It's a shock to find the economy is being run (badly) by people your own age, says Isabel Morton

It's a shock to find the economy is being run (badly) by people your own age, says Isabel Morton

ON MONDAY, September 29th, I forced my teenage son to watch Sky news. "You are witnessing history unfolding," I screeched at him, as he made every effort to get away from his demented mother. "No seriously, when I'm dead and gone, and you're old and grey, you will be sorry you didn't pay attention, as you'll want to tell your children and grandchildren the details."

As we watched the global crash happen, I wondered how it would all appear to a teenager. When I was that age, I presumed that there were responsible, intelligent "adults" out there, who would ensure that the world kept turning.

Now, as a middle-aged woman (ouch!), it comes as a bit of a shock to realise that the world is being run by people of my own age and generation.

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I admit, that deep down inside, I had still hoped that there were some "real grown ups" in positions of authority, who would instinctively know how to run our planet properly. There are not.

Things got worse, when I tried explaining the sub-prime mortgage drama and the erratic stock market reactions to my son.

The expression on his face said it all when I had to use and explain terms like deception, greed, bonuses, gossip, rumour, confidence levels, short selling and government bailouts. He muttered something about poker games and Russian roulette and left the room to "phone his girlfriend". (So much for believing that there were responsible intelligent adults in charge of global finance!)

On Tuesday night, in an effort to keep my unfortunate son up-to-speed on the Budget and the state of the world economy, I nabbed him again on the way through the kitchen. "Listen to this, you should know what's going on," I shouted at him over Brian Lenihan's voice on the radio.

"Just tell me, did he say anything which will get the property market moving again?" he asked as he buried his face in the fridge.

I explained that Capital Gains Tax was put up by 2 per cent, which wasn't great, but could have been a lot worse. Then I went on to tell him about the increase in tax relief for first-time buyers, which wasn't great, but better than nothing.

I was just on the point of telling him about the reduction of stamp duty on commercial property when he removed his head from the fridge and said: "Listen mum, I just want to know if the property market will get moving again?"

I launched into a diatribe about how the Budget had done nothing much for the ailing residential property market, and went on to explain how everything depended on the global financial situation.

He interrupted, and said: "Right, so in other words, property is still not selling and that means that you will continue to be obsessed with Sky news, financial reports and driving me mad telling me about stuff I don't need to hear about?"

Well, he might have a point. The Budget is largely irrelevant in the scheme of things. We rely so heavily on the US, and are so dependent on the state of the global financial market, that irrespective of the pain the Brians have bestowed on us this week, it will be mild by comparison with what could follow, if global financial markets do not stabilise.

In the meanwhile, however, life must go on, one way or the other. And, between government backings and bailouts, the banks may start lending again, however cautiously.

However, it's not all gloom and doom. The economic cycle is at least, predictable. It follows the same wave of emotions every time, although this time around it's an enormous wave.

It starts its upward lift with hope, then optimism, excitement, thrill and eventually euphoria.

Then, just as we reach the crest of the wave, we become worried that things are going too well, so we start feeling anxious.

Then, as the wave falls, we experience denial, fear, panic, capitulation, despondency and finally depression. And the cycle starts all over again, with hope.

We have lived through two years of, at first reduced, and recently, virtually zero activity, in the property market. Having felt despondent for months, this week's Budget has given the nation a reason to sink into deep depression.

When you hit rock bottom, the only way is up. Perhaps now, the worst is over, and the property market might start moving again. This time around, we would just be happy with some normal sales activity. Euphoria is not all it's cracked up to be.

My son enquired why, if we were aware of this predictable wave of emotions, would we not curb our extreme reactions, and maintain a more balanced approach to everything, thus ensuring we would experience gentle ripples, rather than dramatic waves.

Out of the mouths of babes.