On the cusp of the New Year, John Wheeler takes an oracular view down the road of what-might-be, and has some surprising prophecies for the two-wheeled fraternity . . .
Right now, on the threshold of another year, what can we expect in the world of motorcycling? The largest single annual outlay most riders face is insurance. Will it be any less? Unlikely, until and unless there is more, genuine competition, perhaps the best to hope for is that increases ought not to exceed inflation.
More competition is unlikely given a small market and our notorious compensation culture, plus the fact that we do not have post codes. Why should the lack of post codes prevent competition? Outside Ireland virtually all insurers use a post code system as part of the ratings formula. They cannot find a way to work without them.
The system our insurers use, classifying Dublin as the highest-priced area, the counties adjoining Dublin as next in line and with all the rest, including our second city, Cork, as ranking on a par with Co Donegal, is clearly as inexact as it is ridiculous. But a lot depends on claims levels.
An increase in the number of "offences" attracting penalty points might help, but it will take a long time to show an appreciable effect, could the proposed introduction of compulsory basic training. As to how effective that will be will depend on precisely what is specified. The end result could be anything from a cosmetic compromise to a much needed sea change.
With, in the case of accidents involving a motorcycle and another vehicle, in 60 per cent of instances the "other vehicle" being the primary cause of accidents, legislating for CBT just for motorcyclists is not the only answer. Any expectation of the beneficial effect of more visible policing and better, sensible enforcement is unlikely given that for the first six months of the year traffic policing activities will be largely swallowed up by the effect of our Presidency of Europe.
It being axiomatic that Europoliticos and Eurocrats must, at all times, be escorted through a medieval city at unsafe, high speeds, oblivious of the law.
Any restraining influence a weak dollar might have on oil prices is certain to be swallowed up, in running cost terms, by the recent increase in VAT on petrol and by more and higher tolls. But a weaker dollar could, possibly, make Harley-Davidsons a bit cheaper?
Some other bike prices might come down, or rise less than expected. It has long been the case that you could save money, even allowing for VRT, buying a BMW in Germany and self-importing it. BMW admits that in the past that for every two machines bought here, three would have been bought abroad and imported.
Recent price reductions will mean there is no advantage in buying a new BMW abroad. Second-hand bike prices overseas are likely to remain lower, even allowing for the effect of VRT and the strength of sterling in Britain. Irish dealers tend to give better value when you are trading in old for new.
The forthcoming increase in the National Minimum wage plus a host of other factors will surely mean that the cost of servicing will not be any the less. The increasing complexity and application of digital management systems will mean fewer and fewer riders will be able to do their own maintenance.
Continued infrastructural investment should mean that, in general, our roads should get better. To what extent that affects you depends on where you live.
If you are close by the protracted M50 extension works, "investment" means yet more and more mud on the roads. Re-wiring for broadband, replacing old gas and water pipes and the never-ending Luas saga will mean continuing to endure the sort of rider hazards you might expect on the outskirts of Calcutta.
A rebounding economy is most likely to mean more cars and more congestion. We have seen "the enlightened ones" changing over to "powered-two-wheelers", a trend which should continue. That and, for some, more disposable income, should mean that bike sales, which had fallen back in the past 18 months, ought to pick up again.
Manufacturers will be at pains to stress the virtue of newness. It might only be a different colour scheme, but enough to make your just acquired machine outdated. It could be a completely new model. All throughout the year, starting in early January, we should see even more refinement,diversity and "bang for your buck".
This will be as marked in the almost bewildering variety of small scooters. It cannot be far off, but perhaps not in 2004, that someone comes up with a one-litre big scooter. Suzuki's AN 650 shows it could be done.
In the sportier bikes world, expect lower weight and thus better power to weight ratios. In the cruiser market, with Triumph now topping the league with a 2,294 cc machine, someone is sure to challenge them.
The more significant bike changes and new models are likely to first be seen at Intermot being held in Munich in September. The Irish Times will be there to bring you all the latest news.
Motorcycle clothing has improved enormously over recent years; that trend should continue, but at ever greater cost. The likelihood of anyone producing genuinely waterproof gloves seems as remote as ever.
Which leads us to perhaps the most important factor of all, the weather? There is no denying, no matter how good your gear, no matter how tough a rider you are, all of us prefer calm, bright and dry conditions to wet ones. In recent times the effects of global warning seem to have made for milder conditions interspersed with fairly short periods of torrential rain.
Overall, the summer of 2003, which like all true Irish summers, did not get its act together until after the longest day, proved to be better than most of us expected. If 2004 can be as good, few will complain.