At Frankfurt the talk is still spin, but reality is breaking in, says Michael McAleer
Frankfurt did its best to provide a happy oasis from the grim reality of the world outside, with plenty of talk of continuous sales growth, dramatic developments in fuel efficiency and some really stylish sporty concepts. If the car firms had to refer to the rising fuel prices, they did so only through remarks on how each was busy developing revolutionary new hybrid models, most not due for production until at least 2007/2008.
With every new unveiling came a by now standard speech about how well the particular car company was doing. To judge from the statements, every firm is recording unprecedented growth, all models are selling like hot cakes, and each one is just about to invent the hybrid powertrain. No mention of the fact that both Toyota and Honda already have production models on the forecourts.
While in the long-term most car firms are frantically working on non-fossil fuel based powertrains, most likely hydrogen-powered fuel cells, hybrid seems like a quick fix, particularly for the US market.
That BMW has joined with General Motors and DaimlerChrsyler to work to speed up development of petrol-electric hybrid platforms for their various models shows the sea change in attitude. Back in 2002, when the car firms last descended on Frankfurt, Lexus was showing its RX400h while parent company Toyota was on to its second generation of Prius.
At the time most, if not all, of the European marques dismissed hybrid as a waste of effort. "Better to concentrate on the long-term future than some halfway house," was the rather flippant response from one German executive at the time.
Now, with fuel prices finally impacting the important US market - and diesel a non-runner there - car firms are rushing to offer a more fuel-efficient alternative to the Americans. While they work on these projects, Toyota - which with Honda and Ford have hybrid models in showrooms - has relatively free reign on this market. The Europeans are desperate to get a slice of the action, even if there remain serious concerns about the profitability of hybrids.
Not to be outdone, Audi also referred to hybrid during the launch of its new Q7, the first SUV from the four-ring brand. A 7-seater, it features the new-look big grille and is powered for now by a 3-litre TDI or 4.2-litre petrol. A hybrid version was also unveiled and chairman Dr Martin Winterkorn said the Q7 was designed from the start to take such technology. However, while the regular Q7 will be introduced early next year, it will be 2008 before we see the hybrid on the road.
There was bemusement at Toyota at the hybrid hype at other stands. While others showed concepts, its premium marque Lexus unveiled its latest hybrid production model, the GS450h.
Meanwhile, at Mercedes, the new S-Class launch was marked by yet more innovative technology. Included is a central control system similar to BMW's iDrive, but most of the advances concern safety. Many innovations will eventually seep down to regular affordable models, but the premium German marque is aware that it must get the new technology right. Electronic problems on the E-Class when it was launched severely damaged the brand's reputation and cannot be repeated.
The car itself looks increasingly like a smaller version of the Maybach, which is good for Mercedes but not for the supposedly ultra-luxury brand. Maybach unveiled the Exelero concept, arguably the silliest looking concept car on show, and that's saying something.
At VW, while moves are well advanced for hybrids to be introduced in the near future, perhaps the best news for fuel-conscious consumers came with news that the much anticipated 1.4-litre twin-charged petrol engine will be introduced in the Golf and Touran in coming months. Developing an impressive 170bhp and with a 0-100km/h time of 7.9 seconds it manages a very respectable 7.2 l/100km (49mpg).
German brands pulled off something of a coup this year, by announcing late in the day that the show's opening would be moved to Monday rather than Tuesday. Coincidentally it was the German marques that seemed to learn of this development first and booked up all the early press events. So, while the Germans were proudly showing off their wares, neighbouring stands still had the builders in.
The only German marque to miss out on the first day was General Motors brand Opel, yesterday launching its hard-topped Astra convertible along with the crossover Antara GTS concept. The Antara will make it into production next year with arrival in Ireland by autumn 2006. It's the Frontera replacement, only less of an off-roader than a butch on-roader.
Crossovers were a common sub-theme at the show, as marketing staff strive to create yet more niche segments, mixing saloon estates with SUVs and the like. Hence the new niche name CUVs (crossover utility vehicles).
At the official launches, Frankfurt followed the well-developed format of parading company executives before the press with statements containing the sort of waffle that would do Birds Eye proud.
An example of this, though by no means the worst offender, was Smart. A senior executive at the beleaguered firm, which has yet to meet targets set for 2004 and which recently withdrew its Roadster model and cancelled plans to build a 4x4, spoke of the new Smart strategy of "controlled offence". Such jargon probably sounded good at the marketing meeting, but cut little ice with the journalists.
While the spinmeisters could work their magic on the fuel issue, there was one threat which created furrowed brows of concern on even the most on-message executives: China. Several Chinese brands are making their show debuts here in preparation for full entry to the European market in the coming years. One, Landwind, is already on sale in the Netherlands.
With lower labour costs and engineering know-how courtesy of joint-partnerships with US and American giants, the only limitations to Chinese success seems to be market acceptance and inexperienced management. Acceptance is not as much of a hurdle as it once could have been: motorists are used to Asian cars thanks to penetration by Japanese and more recently Korean brands. The management issue could be solved relatively quickly as well.
While premium brands have less to worry about, those competing on price are desperately seeking another angle to hold off the Chinese onslaught. Buyers may dismiss Geely and SIAC as throwbacks to the 1980s and 1990s, but western car firms know from their experience of Japanese and Korean brands that they ignore the threat at their peril.