Author Iain Carson believes the technology race to reduce greenhouse gas emissions keeps changing, writes Richard Gillis
The battle for global domination between General Motors (GM) and Toyota is about more than sales figures; it's about nothing less than the future of the motor car.
Last month, industry statistics confirmed GM as the world's largest car manufacturer, but only just. Detroit-based GM recorded sales of 7.06 million vehicles for the first nine months of this year, shading Toyota's global sales figure of 7.05 million vehicles over the same period. Toyota's total monthly production rose to 799,909 vehicles, with its output outside the US climbing 6.1 per cent to 365,282 units.
Underlying these numbers are issues that transcend the car plants of Detroit and Aichi to vex the powerbrokers on Capitol Hill and within the Bush administration.
"Oil is the problem, cars are the solution" is the mantra of Iain Carson, co-author of Zoom: The Global Race to Fuel the Car of the Future. The book, which he wrote along with fellow Economist writer Vijay Vaitheeswaran, was shortlisted for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year award. They have tracked the incestuous relationship between the car and oil industries - passenger vehicles in the US account for 40 per cent of the country's oil use, and 10 per cent globally. Their findings suggest divorce is imminent.
Carson says Toyota is five to seven years ahead of the competition in terms of developing the car of the future: "It is no coincidence that Toyota is the most profitable and challenging as the biggest car company in the world because it's also the technological leader, the one that has tried to solve the environmental problem of fuel emissions."
When it comes to the need for a new approach, Carson asks us to do the maths. The fast-growing economies of China and India, he says, will have huge implications on the car industry.
There are nine personal vehicles per thousand eligible drivers in China and 11 for every thousand Indians, compared with 1,148 for every thousand Americans.
As more Indian and Chinese people become able to afford a car, the demand for oil will soar, along with the emission of greenhouse gases.
In his book, Carson asks us to think of "the effect on global warming of 750 million more cars in India and China, belching carbon dioxide".
Toyota's pioneering work with the Prius hybrid is the result of a long-term, technologically driven approach.
"The Prius is not exactly the car of the future," says Carson. "It is a step along the way."
The clever computer software and electronics that have gone into the petrol electric hybrid are the basis of the next generation of cars. In 10 years time it will be common to see fuel cells in cars, with hydrogen generating the electricity.
"If you have the done the work to get to this stage, you own the technology for developing the car of the future," says Carson.
The evidence suggests that petrol engines are getting better, producing more power from less fuel; however, the fashion for bigger, heavier cars has negated the impact of this advance.
One of the nuggets Carson has at his disposal is that Henry Ford's Model T was a "flex-fuel" car that could run on either ethanol or gasoline. Incredibly, the Model T's miles per gallon outstripped the average new vehicle sold today.
Part of the reason for the lack of real progress is cynicism on the part of the American car industry, in tandem with its colleagues in "Big Oil", both of which have been indulged by the American government.
The advances made by Japanese manufacturers such as Toyota and Honda have filled the vacuum.
"Toyota has avoided 'plug-ins' but hackers in California started buying up Prius and mucking about with them, putting in heavier, more powerful batteries that could be charged overnight," says Carson.
"Toyota didn't like that, because it muddied their marketing message, which is that with the Prius you never have to plug it in."
Plug-ins conjure memories of previous attempts at innovation, most of which fell by the wayside. The Japanese manufacturer has got over this reluctance and within the next five years it will be producing plug-in hybrids that can run for a week.
In America, the average car usage is about 30 miles a day, a journey that can be achieved on battery charge alone.
Ironically, given Detroit's reluctance to advance the cause of new fuels, it is America's newest industrial heartland, Silicon Valley, that is moving the debate forward.
Tesla Motors, a car company funded by internet billionaires, will test the market for electric cars when it launches its new supercar next year.
The company promises a non-petrol car that is faster than a Ferrari and which can travel for more than 250 miles on one battery charge.
It may be the future of the automobile industry, or another false dawn. As Carson suggests, "the game keeps changing, that's why it's a race".
Meanwhile, GM continues to put oil at the centre of its marketing strategy. The company has unveiled a new advertising campaign aimed at rescuing the image of the Hummer, the enormous SUV-cum-armoured car, which the car-maker has manufactured since 1999.
"Hummer Heroes" is a set of three ads under a common theme, of owners putting their gas-guzzling vehicle to good causes. "Our brand has always been polarising, and we've always said we are not for everybody," said a GM marketing executive.
With Big Oil as a running mate, the dinosaurs of Detroit are not giving up on the future just yet.