Motors looks at the future of eco-friendly motoring
2009/2010 Carbon cuts and more hybrids
Just over a century since the internal combustion engine changed transport forever, the race is on to replace it. In the short-term it will remain the dominant power source for motoring transport, in petrol or diesel form.
However, major strides are being made in cutting carbon emissions in regular engines. With names like EfficientDynamics (BMW), BlueEfficiency (Mercedes) and BlueMotion (VW), car firms are releasing engines that dramatically cut emissions. Early next year VW will introduce its BlueMotion low emissions variants to Ireland. That will mean a Polo putting out 87g/km, a Golf with 99g/km and a Passat with 118g/km. Before the end of 2010 we can expect most mainstream modern combustion engines of two litres to put out less than 170g/km. That's going to benefit the environment, although it will cause headaches for the revenue in terms of falling tax take. Meanwhile hybrid sales are likely to grow, with the Lexus RX 450h a prime example of a premium hybrid in a segment not associated with frugal motoring. A new two-wheel drive version puts out just 140g/km. Other new hybrids to arrive on market include the Honda CR-Z sports car and a long-awaited diesel-electric hybrid entrant, the first of which will come from Peugeot.
Electric vehicles (EVs) will remain rather nascent technology. Plug-in points will still be rare, but cars like the Tesla and Reva range will be on sale, while the Mini E and Mitsubishi I-Miev supermini should arrive on the market in small numbers. At the wacky end of EVs will be the Aptera. With room for two people and three sets of golf clubs, its makers claim it has a guaranteed range of 160km. In California 3,500 people have already put down deposits for the car.
2011/2012 The dawn of the electric age
Perhaps these years will go down as the dawn of the electric age in mainstream motoring. A host of car firms are promising to deliver electric cars in 2012. First on the market is likely to be either the Nissan Leaf or one of Renault's stable of future electric models. The Leaf will have a range of more than 160km from one full charge, sufficient for most daily needs.
Renault plans to be the first manufacturer to offer a range of electric vehicles, not just a token model. Arguably the most important arrival in 2011 will be the Opel Ampera, the first mass-produced extended-range electric vehicle. Rather than using electric power alone, the Ampera will use a small petrol engine as a back-up to the electric motor. Owners, if their commute allows, will be able to run on electric power only up to 60km. Beyond this, the petrol engine serves as a generator, powering the electric engine, which powers the wheels for more than 500km.
At the same time expect to see the Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid. With a new lithium-ion battery you will be able to plug it in and recharge the battery from the mains. It can travel solely on electric power at speeds of 100km/h for up to 20km. Toyota will also introduce an electric version of its IQ city car for the US market by 2011, with a range of 90km on a single charge. The critical factor that will determine success or failure of all these mainstream electric pioneers will be their prices: if they are competitive against their petrol/diesel equivalents, the electric age will have arrived.
2013/14 More choice in the electric market
These two years will be about establishing a wider market base and the arrival of more choice on the market. By now plug-in points should be commonplace, and brands like VW will introduce urban models to compete with the Asian brands. Cars like the E-Up will debut on the market, powered by an electric motor capable of delivering a peak of 81bhp and 208Nm of torque channelling drive through the front wheels. It has a 0-100km/h time of 11.3 seconds and a top speed of 135km/h. Battery technology should have improved, and we will have a better understanding of whether we have a secure supply of lithium to support the massive growth in EVs. We will see the start of premium electric models like the Mercedes F Cell, which might also be powered by hydrogen.
2015 and beyond From electric to hydrogen to driverless cars
If the previous years were about the move towards electric, 2015 could herald the next dawn. Could plug-in power be a brief fad? Will hydrogen emerge as the long-term solution? If so, will all the money spent on recharging points have been wasted?
Several car firms have already signed a memorandum of understanding to have hydrogen fuel cell cars on sale by 2015. These include Mercedes, Honda, Toyota, Ford, GM (Opel), Renault-Nissan and Hyundai-Kia . By then the Honda FCX Clarity will be a reality. Currently the test models carry large fuel stacks for converting hydrogen to electricity and often three or four fuel tanks. It's hoped to reduce these down to one single carbon-fibre tank and reduce the size of the fuel cell stacks by half. A dilemma is cost and supply of materials for fuel cells, as they currently contain platinum.
Engineers are confident safety concerns will be overcome, but costs may still be restrictive. It's likely early cars will be hydrogen-electric hybrids, allowing owners to power their cars using a plug-in charged electric battery and a hydrogen fuel cell.
But will the owner be the driver? The technology to create driverless cars is largely in place already. By matching satnav technology with adaptive cruise-control systems, cars can effectively drive themselves. The technology is rapidly developing.