Are American motorists about to lose their old gas-guzzling habits?The immediate response might be "Don't hold the breath" but at the North American international motor show this past week, the talk was very much of an alternative to the conventional petrol engine.
Indeed, it was more than talk. Lexus presented the RX400h, dubbed the world's first luxury performance hybrid vehicle. Hybrid technology was very much the flavour of the show, what with the second-generation Toyota Prius winning the North American Car of the Year accolade.
Toyota, seeing hybrid as the way forward, has taken it into its 6-cylinder Highlander SUV and its massive V8 FTX pick-up concept that will become its 2006 Tundra.
Honda's 2004 line-up at the show included a V6 hybrid Accord. It comes with slightly more horse power than the petrol 240bhp Accord but with the same fuel economy as a 4-cylinder Civic, or 40 per cent better than the petrol Accord. The Accord hybrid gets help on fuel economy by cutting off half the cylinders when only modest power is needed.
Ford's plans a performance Escape hybrid SUV, while GM will embrace the technology in V8 engined vehicles.
Walter McManus, executive director of forecasting and analysis at JD Power and Associates, told Detroi audiences probably what they already knew: hybrids will not be mainstream without performance. "Until now," he said, "they have been considered underpowered, a compromise for fuel economy."
Mainstreaming means high volume - millions instead of thousands - and that's necessary to bring down the high cost of sophisticated batteries and other high-tech components of petrol-electric powertrains.
McManus admitted that making hybrids high performing isn't going to make environmentalists entirely happy. "They have an aversion anyway to large SUVs," he said. "But if people don't buy the product, fuel economy doesn't matter. Look at the subcompact Geo Metro - it gave 60mpg but nobody bought it and it went away."
We should see the Lexus 400h in Ireland late this year. It features an all-new battery (capable of twice the power of the battery in the Prius) and an new electric motor capable of 12,000rpm (twice the speed of the Prius motor). The new hybrid system will deliver a peak output of around 270bhp, nearly 20 per cent more than the non-hybrid RX 330.
Denny Clements, Lexus US vice-president, made other impressive claims: the driving range will be "far better" than 600 miles on a tank. "In real world terms you can drive the new 400h from Los Angeles to New York and back nine times, that's 54,000 miles, and produce less smog-forming emissions than painting a room with a gallon of house paint."
With all this hybrid hype, the Mercedes-Benz announcement of launching the E320CDI in April seemed like a small voice in the wilderness. It's now five years since it last sold a diesel-engined vehicle in the US.
Mercedes expects to sell between 3,000 and 3,500 E-Class diesels in the US this year. "Our selling point will be 30 per cent better fuel economy than with a similar gasoline engine," said Joachim Schmidt, board member for sales and marketing.
Diesel isn't part of the American motorists' culture and much education is needed. A more propitious time for its arrival might be in late 2006 when low sulphur diesel becomes available in all 50 states. That's when Mercedes rival, BMW intends to introduces its diesels into the US.
Last week the Detroit News said that the real answer to America's energy problems wasn't getting much attention from US car makers. "Diesel engines, if used fleetwide, would increase fuel efficiency by about 50 per cent," it said. "That's better than the current crop of hybrid vehicles, and more than is expected to be gained far in the future from hybrid vehicles." The paper noted that nearly half of all cars sold in Europe were diesel.
Volkwagen is the only marque selling diesel cars in the US - it markets diesel versions of the Golf, Jetta and new Beetle and this spring, it will add a V10 diesel Touareg and a diesel Passat.
About 9 per cent of its US sales are diesel. VW is now working with the US agricultural giant, Archer Daniels Midland, on a green, clean biodiesel, combining diesel petroleum with natural or reneweable resources, such as rapeseed oil or soybean oil.