A panel of experts outlines how things should ideally turn out in 2025 - and how they probably will
Immigration
IDEAL WORLD: PLANNED IMMIGRATION
Let's recognise immigration as inevitable - the alternative is stagnation, and we've had enough of that in the past century. The drivers for change are largely beyond our control: massive inequality, cheaper travel, population growth, and Europe's growing integration in the world. That's not to say we should do nothing. Immigration needs to be controlled and directed. Long before 2025, we're going to need a joined-up immigration system responsive to the long-term needs of our society.
That's not the same as responding to the needs of our economy; employers want workers, as cheaply as possible, but what a society gets is people. Employers, when they choose to, can get rid of workers by making them redundant; getting rid of surplus people from a society is neither desirable nor easily achieved. Besides, people have rights, families, cultures, religion, and it's a common mistake to assume that immigrants want to forgo these just because they have arrived in a wealthy Western country.
We must decide what kind of society we want in 20 years' time and what rate of immigration is acceptable to achieve this. Those we invite to live among us deserve hospitality, and a progressive unrolling of rights culminating in citizenship after five years.
Integration should be the guiding principle. A proper immigration system will not only provide a safe haven for refugees, but will actively invite refugees living in difficult situations in other parts of the world to come to Ireland.
However, none of this makes any sense unless the immigration system provides for sanctions - deportation - for illegal migrants. Periodic amnesties make a mockery of the other elements of a well thought-out system.
REAL WORLD: A FAR-RIGHT BACKLASH
Few areas of life have the power to transform Irish society as much as immigration. The changes have already begun, but over the next 20 years they will accelerate massively.
Here are a few possibilities - by the year 2025, Ireland is likely to have a Little Lagos, a few Kasbahs and half-a-dozen Chinatowns; Irish citizens will be in a minority in several parts of Dublin; the Irish language will have fewer speakers than Chinese or Arabic; we will have known race killings and perhaps even honour killings; Dublin will have its first black TD; gospel churches will thrive throughout the State; far-right parties will play the race card in the Dáil and may occasionally hold the balance of power; and the Irish soccer team will be ethnically diverse and largely Irish-born.
Race politics will be a common phenomenon, as elements of the majority culture harvest votes by preying on growing insecurity in the population. Growing racial tensions will push minorities back into their own cultures, further heightening their isolation and leaving them at the mercy of community leaders with other agendas. And yes, there will be examples of integration, inter-racial harmony and cultural fusion, but these will take place at the margins.
Paul Cullen is Development Correspondent of The Irish Times and the author of Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Ireland (1999)
Travel
IDEAL WORLD: WE PRACTISE SUSTAINABLE TOURISM
The World Tourism Organisation expects global tourism to triple between now and 2020 and to continue growing. The challenge will be to ensure that, despite the swelling numbers visiting airports, beaches and galleries, travel remains a pleasant and rewarding experience.
To this end, we will take more diverse holidays. Already, westerners go not only on beach breaks and cultural tours, but also food courses, spa holidays, windsurfing breaks, eco tours and, of course, shopping trips abroad. Each of these segments is likely to grow and more will be added, to absorb the many more holidays we take.
Sustainable holidays - which support local economies, barely disturb natural environments, and even improve the destination in some way (caring for local wildlife, for example) - would also preserve tourist destinations and take travellers away from the most visited locations.
The search for an authentic travel experience will also drive tourists to ever more distant places: Siberia, Antarctica, Outer Space. Get there before it's ruined.
REAL WORLD: WE TRAVEL LESS
Some say we are now living in a golden age of travel, in which we can fly cheaply around a world not yet overrun by tourists. In future, they say, rising air fuel prices, and a requirement to work harder will make long-haul holidays a rare luxury.
Holidays, then, may become less about travel and more about relaxation. We will take time off work, spend time with loved ones and take local breaks. An around-the-world trip will still be possible, but it will be slower than it is now, with more overland travel.
On the plus side, on those rare occasions when you get to a sun-kissed foreign beach, it should be less crowded than it is now.
Conor Goodman is an Irish Times journalist and former travel columnist
Energy
IDEAL WORLD: IRELAND EXPORTS ELECTRICITY
In 2025 Ireland will be reaping economic and social benefits if, in 2005, we take our heads out of the sand and recognise that the nation's almost total reliance on imported and diminishing fossil fuels is a recipe for downfall.
"If government departments recognise that energy is key to our well-being, we'll be maintaining competitiveness in the global economy in 2025," says Vicky Heslop, founding member of the Irish Bio-Energy Association. "We should be self-sufficient in energy through a mix of renewable energy and energy efficiency," she says.
Integrated thinking is key to decoupling our economy - our food, homes, industry, transport - from burning fossil fuels, so if diverse players start working together now, the shock of scarce and expensive fuel in 2005 will be minimised. We'll be exporting green electricity from state-of-the-art wind and wave farms in 2025 via electricity interconnectors with Britain. We'll have followed the Danish model of community renewable energy plants, with farmers making money from harvesting the energy from organic waste and running small-scale wind farms. Clever building design will mean heating requirements are minimal. Most people's hot water will be heated by solar panels on their roofs; hi-tech wood stoves and ground-sourced heat pumps powered by wind-derived electricity will be standard.
REAL WORLD: WE BECOME A NUCLEAR POWER
Government's failure to prioritise energy self-sufficiency in the early 21st century will mean imported fossil fuels continue to dominate our lives but real shortages and exorbitant prices will have forced us to massively reduce energy consumption.
The price of a barrel of oil will be sky-high as predictions by experts such as Cork-based Colin Campbell that global oil and gas demand would outstrip supply by 2015 will have proven correct. As a result, economic competitiveness will be severely damaged. In a worst-case scenario, blackouts will be common and hundreds of thousands of Irish households will live in fuel poverty, unable to afford heat for health and comfort.
Our superb renewable energy resources (we're the second-windiest European nation) will be grossly under-utilised. As a result, Ireland will be leasing a British nuclear power plant for its electricity. We'll also be reliant on gas from the interconnector pipe across the Irish Sea, a high-risk terrorist target.
Iva Pocock is a journalist
Sport
IDEAL WORLD: NOBODY EVER BEATS THE IRISH
The country has two new state-of-the-art sporting stadiums, the latest the 120,001 all-seater Ahern Arena in Drumcondra which, because of its greater capacity, beats the 120,000 all-seater Kenny Koliseum in Castlebar in the race to be the chief venue for the 2028 Olympic Games, for which Ireland has won hosting rights.
Elsewhere, Republic of Ireland manager Roy Keane, fresh from World Cup success in 2022, threatens to step down from his post to concentrate on his role as director of football at Cobh Ramblers, the richest club in Europe after its owners struck oil off Bantry. His first signing (€84.6 billion) is Dwayne Rooney, a plump Scouser with peculiar nocturnal habits but magic in his feet. "Like father like son," Keane tells Thomas Gorman in a Fox Ireland exclusive.
Brian O'Driscoll captains Ireland to their 20th successive Grand Slam and admits that he's surprised himself to still be going strong at the age of 46 - he puts his longevity down to the hi-energy drink he has been waving in front of the cameras for 25 years.
Jose Mourinho, meanwhile, leads Kerry to its first All-Ireland hurling title and Kilkenny to its first football success. In the same season. "Jaysus Jose," asks Marty Morrissey, "how did you do it?" "I told you," replies the miracle man, "I am God." Marty blesses himself and genuflects.
REAL WORLD: OLYMPIC DOPING SCANDAL SHOCK
The Irish rugby team, still smarting from defeat at the hands of Finland in the Seven Nations, put their miserable form down to the fact that they have no home to go to. The GAA is due to vote again soon on whether or not to allow them into Croke Park.
Bobby Robson, now 186, refuses to step down as Republic of Ireland football manager, despite the fact that Eamon Dunphy (96) has publicly questioned his decision to play Johnny Giles in goal against the Independent Republic of East Cork in the World Cup qualifying play-offs.
Cork, by default, make it 21 senior hurling titles in a row, after Kilkenny, Wexford and Galway withdraw from the championship because they cannot field full teams (global freezing has resulted in snow-boarding taking over as the counties' chief sports). Dublin, still seeking their first football All-Ireland success of the century, appoint their 22nd manager in 24 years.
The report on Ireland's calamitous showing at the 2024 home Olympic Games isn't due out until 2033, but an early leak levels criticism at Olympic Council president Pat Hickey's decision to send a team made up of 36 judo players and one pole vaulter. The pole vaulter, Jumpin' Jack Johnson from Julianstown, Ireland's only medallist at the Games, continues to maintain his innocence despite Charlie Bird being told by a reliable source that his pole tested positive for a banned substance. Later, Hickey faces the 37th challenge to his position as OCI president. He wins.
Mary Hannigan is a sports journalist with The Irish Times
Crime
IDEAL WORLD: WE GET TOUGH ON THE CAUSES OF CRIME
There is no doubt that crime in Ireland has increased in recent decades. However, this is against a background of historically extremely low levels, and Ireland today is by no means unusual among free societies in its level of crime. It is of course unrealistic to hope that crime can be eliminated in the coming decades. What we can hope for are measures that tackle crime in a manner that is more effective, and equitable, in reducing it.
Those who commit crime come from a background of social, educational and economic disadvantage. Criminals, to whom we devote vast resources once they are sentenced to prison, are often the same individuals who have fallen out of our educational or healthcare system earlier in their lives. If a fraction of the resources we spend in locking up prisoners were available at an earlier stage to provide the support services required by parents, teachers and social workers, we would have taken an important step.
We should not merely lock up prisoners and then send them back out of this restrictive environment without at least attempting to address the issues that may have brought them there in the first place - whether that involves drug treatment and counselling, or educational and vocational training. In addition, there should be adequate release programmes to ensure a follow-up on the support available in prison.
REAL WORLD: CIVIL LIBERTIES ARE ERODED
As Shadow Home Secretary, Tony Blair famously promised to be "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime". In that country, as in our own jurisdiction, there has been much more emphasis on cracking down on criminals than seeking to address the causes of crime.
While it is understandable that any victim of crime will wish to see the criminal punished, there has been a worrying trend in recent years of eroding long-standing civil liberties in pursuit of the fight against crime. Given the proposals to extend the powers of the Garda in the Criminal Justice Bill 2004, it would appear this trend will continue.
The right to trial by jury, to remain silent when questioned, to bail pending trial, have all been limited in favour of increasing the powers of various agencies of the state. It is now proposed to establish a DNA database and to extend the powers of the Garda to arrest and detain suspects for questioning, to obtain search warrants and to take swabs from a suspect without their consent.
In short, it would appear that in the area of crime, the future holds more of the same - a failure to address the underlying causes of crime and a populist willingness to undermine traditional civil liberties in order to appear tough on crime.
John Fitzgerald is a barrister. He formerly worked as a solicitor specialising in criminal law
Your Home
IDEAL WORLD: MICROCHIPS MAKE LIFE EASY
The ideal home of 2025 is easy to imagine: a cocooning haven where cleaning and cooking are done for us by robots. Smart technologies monitor and adjust lighting, heat or air conditioning, and music. Sensors will know an order needs to be placed for milk, bread, and extra wine for Friday's party (it is in the digital diary, after all).
Home entertainment innovations will include digital streaming of the latest films over the Internet, watched on the standard, home cinema-sized flat wallscreen. The clutter of separate entertainment systems will be gone.
Security would keep private havens under digital lock and key. A mix of biometrics and microchips will open, shut and activate our homes. Sensors will alert emergency services to any fire, gas leak or break-in.
REAL WORLD: SECURITY PARAMOUNT
Will anyone really want to pay a premium for an automated helper when a human can be hired for less overall cost - or you can simply do the task yourself? Robots are more likely to find a place in 2025 in hospitals or nursing homes where they could be cost-effective. Keep in mind, too, that washers, dryers and dishwashers have changed little in concept since the 1960s. Kitchens, though, will truly see a transformation, as the use of sensors and radio frequency identification tags opens up many possibilities for home monitoring of supplies and the automatic reordering of items via the Internet. The same tags could allow cooking directions to be programmed into cookers and ovens. Home entertainment will also be revolutionised - already happening as the PC becomes more an information and entertainment centre. By 2025 they will be managed by a ubiquitous household network, not a PC.
Security will be ever more important as populations grow apace with fear of violent and petty crime. Housekeys will be an antique notion long since replaced by chips and scanning devices. Expect the boom career of 2025 to be managing and repairing these home technologies. The network guy or gal will be more valued than a plumber.
Karlin Lillington is technology columnist with The Irish Times
Security
IDEAL WORLD: AN OPEN DEBATE
At the beginning of the 21st century, the EU is embarked upon an ambitious military project - the creation of a pan-European military force - in an environment almost devoid of national public debate. On the one hand, Ireland lacks even the most basic defensive military strategy or protection. On the other, despite our neutral status, Ireland's meagre security resources are being integrated by stealth into the EU's newly-created military structures.
A significant contribution to transparency would consist of the Defence Forces engaging in this debate. As is the case with other professional groups in areas of vital public interest such as health and education, they ought to discharge their duty of care to the Irish people by highlighting the woeful under-development of our domestic defences.
The Defence Forces ought to publish articles in international military and academic journals which, together with an active engagement with the media, would further our collective understanding of security concerns.
In this climate, without an explicit defence strategy, our territory and its citizens will remain particularly vulnerable to the man-made and natural disasters that inevitably lie ahead between now and 2025.
REAL WORLD: A DRIFT INTO WAR
Ireland's second Nice referendum in October of 2002 was an important milestone in the realisation of these ambitions for Europe. Our ratification of the Nice treaty allowed for the formalisation of Europe's newly-formed EU Military Staffs reporting to the European Council in Brussels. This EU military headquarters - the centre for the European Rapid Reaction Force (ERRF) - has among its staff, five senior Irish army officers. They will play a vital role in developing this force of more than 100,000 troops, which is to be capable of operating up to 2,500 miles beyond the EU's borders - well in advance of 2025.
Ireland, therefore, is playing a central role in the development of Europe's military capability. Irish men and women will serve as foot-soldiers in EU military operations, particularly in Eastern Europe. Only recently, Ireland has committed troops to a NATO battle group deployed to Kosovo and to the EU's EUFOR military mission to Bosnia. In November, the Government formally approved the notion of Irish soldiers serving with the ERRF's battle groups. Consistent with these trends, Irish troops will inevitably become involved in whatever military adventures - or misadventures - the EU sees fit to pursue.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer. He lectures in the DIT School of Media
Your health
IDEAL WORLD TELEMEDICINE TAKES OVER
Technology should rule medicine in 20 years' time. It will be possible to have your health monitored without attending the doctor's surgery. Blood pressure, blood sugars and electrocardiographs (ECGs) will be checked via modems and microchips. Only when an abnormality shows up will it be necessary to attend in person. We will all carry personal medical information on a microchip in a national identity card. Doctors anywhere in the world will have immediate access to your personal medical history, medication details and allergy history.
Just as pilots learn manoeuvres in a simulator rather than a real aircraft, a doctor or nurse will be fully trained using virtual reality before they carry out some procedures for real.
The polydiet of wine, fish, fruit and vegetables, almonds and chocolate should form the basis of a diet guaranteed to reduce the risk of heart disease and some cancers. However, a pharmaceutical polypill will be preferred by the majority of the population.
Finally, alternative medicine will continue to flourish. Proof of its efficacy will remain elusive, but the fact that its practitioners will be the only ones to offer lengthy face-to-face consultations will ensure its place in the 2025 pantheon of health treatments.
REAL WORLD: VIRUS PANDEMICS
Designed to prevent three-quarters of all cases of heart disease and one-quarter of cancers, the single polypill will be as much part of breakfast as cereal is now. For many cancers, it will be possible to use virtual screening techniques rather than invasive tests for diagnosis. Survival rates will increase as a result. The average life expectancy for a child born in 2025 could be 95 years.
But death from infectious disease could rise significantly. Major influenza pandemics will occur, each causing seven million deaths. There will be a shortage of anti-viral treatments to deal with each outbreak. Antibiotic resistance will be widespread. MRSA-type bugs will multiply. Before undergoing routine surgery, we will require treatment to eradicate them.
Health taxes could account for 30 per cent of all taxation, to cover the cost of technology-based medicine. But will the electorate vote for or against such high levels of health taxation?
Dr Muiris Houston is Medical Correspondent of The Irish Times
Your money
IDEAL WORLD: EVERYONE HAS A GOOD PENSION
Ideally, over the next 20 years the explosive growth in house prices and consumer credit that have accompanied the economic expansion of the past decade will slow to rates that match the economy's medium-term growth prospects of 5 per cent per annum. This will see Ireland back away from both a property crash and the current situation where the average person owes more than their annual disposable income.
Equally, it is hoped that some of the positive trends of the past 10 years continue, such as our high rate of personal saving. We will have to start adequately funding our pensions to provide for longer and hopefully earlier retirements.
In this halcyon age, Irish people will have become used to affluence and take a longer-term view of their finances, and hopefully a less panic-stricken attitude to the property market. For this to come about, a number of things have to happen, the most significant of which is that the economy continues to prosper, and supply meets demand in the property market. As property ceases to be the most attractive asset class, we will start to look at other investment and savings opportunities.
REAL WORLD: SOME OF US LOSE JOBS AND HOMES
Current trends in house prices and consumer borrowing are unsustainable, but there is no agreement on what will happen next. Barring a "soft landing", a reversal of some sort looks inevitable. Likely triggers are a sudden rise in interest rates or unemployment, caused by an external event. It is possible we could have gone through one if not two such cycles by 2025, which would be quite shocking for those in their 20s and 30s who will have known nothing but the economic good times. They are likely to have the largest mortgages and the greatest personal debt.
The biggest losers will see both their jobs and their homes go, but if the UK property market collapse is anything to go by, the numbers will be small. The effect on consumer confidence will be devastating, but may lead people to adopt a more mature approach to their personal finances.
If - by some happy chance - the Irish property market avoids a serious reversal, it is naive to think that the Irish will evolve into astute long-term managers of their money. It is far more likely that the Government will bribe or force people to save and fund pensions, through initiatives such as the Special Savings Investment Accounts. Others, such as later retirement ages and compulsory pension contributions for private sector workers are already on the agenda.
John McManus is Deputy Business Editor of The Irish Times