UP TO 250,000 additional jobs will be created between now and 2015 as part of an overall economic recovery, an employment report produced by Fás and the the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has stated. However, the study predicts that despite projected job gains, there will be 80,000 fewer people employed in 2015 than at the height of the boom in 2008.
The report says that while employment in most occupations will recover in the years ahead, the speed and extent of such a recovery is likely to vary between sectors. It forecasts that some will emerge with relatively strong employment growth while others will fail to meet pre-recession levels by 2015.
The report says that, in absolute terms, the greatest net job gains by 2015 are expected for professionals in the areas of business, science, engineering and information technology as well as personal service providers, managers and sales agents. It predicts the greatest net losses will be “for agricultural workers, construction workers – skilled building workers and wood craftspersons – and operatives’’.
The report forecasts that by 2015 employment levels overall will reach 1.95 million, a reduction of 3.8 per cent on the peak figure of 2.03 million reached in 2008.
Speaking at the launch of the report, Jasmina Behan of Fás said that the findings were based on a number of assumptions including a recovery among the country’s main trading partners from this year; a restoration in Irish competitiveness; no major increases in taxation after this year; GNP growth rates of 5 per cent between 2011 and 2015; a restoration of the financial sector; and a resumed flow of credit.
According to the forecasts, the number of white-collar workers will continue to grow and by 2015 will account for 50 per cent of the workforce. Combined managers/ proprietors, professionals and associate professionals are expected to account for 38 per cent of the total employment in 2015 compared to 34 per cent in 2008 and 31 per cent in 1996.
“When these groups are combined with clerical workers, the forecasts suggest that, in 2015, 50 per cent of workers will be in ‘white-collar’ employment – up from 44 per cent in 1996,” it states.
The number of females in employment is expected to exceed its pre-recession level by 2015. Male employment, although likely to grow from this year, is not expected to recover to the pre-recession level by 2015.
By 2015, females are expected to account for more than half of business services professionals and almost half of all managers.
The report also predicts that the number of agricultural workers will fall by nearly 30 per cent by 2015, compared with the figure in 2008.
‘‘If employment in agricultural occupations were to contract in line with the overall employment decline of 3.8 per cent, the number of agricultural workers would decline by 4,100 by 2015. However, because employment in the agricultural sector, where more than 80 per cent of agricultural workers are employed, is expected to contract more sharply than that in the overall economy, the decline is expected to be greater by an additional 20,000,’’ the report states.
It says that, in the medium term the construction sector is not expected to recover to the levels reached at the peak of the boom, and employment in 2015 is likely to be one-quarter lower than in 2008. Employment for all categories of operatives is likely to be lower in 2015 compared with the figures for both 2008 and 1996.
