Analysis:Undecided dominate on EU poll while voters' top budget priority is more spending in health and education, not tax cuts, writes Stephen Collins,Political Editor
More than 60 per cent of voters don't know whether they will vote for or against the European Reform Treaty in the referendum due to be held in May or June of next year, according to the Irish TimesTNS, mrbi opinion poll.
Asked how they intend to vote in the referendum, 25 per cent said they would vote yes, 13 per cent said no, while 62 per cent said they didn't know or had no opinion.
What is really worrying for the major parties, who all support the treaty, is that the number of voters saying they will vote yes has almost halved since a similar question was asked about the almost identical EU constitution in 2005.
The good news for the Government on Europe in the latest poll, conducted last Monday and Tuesday, is that Green Party supporters are moving strongly in favour of the EU treaty compared with the supporters of any other party.
The Greens have campaigned against every EU treaty for the past 20 years but the party is currently in a consultation process which its leaders hope will see it backing the yes campaign along with the other two Government parties.
The poll figures show that 37 per cent of Green supporters intend to vote yes with just 2 per cent saying they will vote no and 61 per cent undecided.
By comparison 27 per cent of Fianna Fáil supporters say they will vote yes and 12 per cent intend to vote no with 61 per cent undecided. PD supporters are the strongest in support of the treaty with 66 per cent intending to vote yes.
Among the Opposition parties Labour voters are most strongly in favour with 32 per cent intending to vote yes, compared to 28 per cent of Fine Gael supporters and 19 per cent of Sinn Féin voters.
In regional terms the yes vote is strongest in Dublin with 34 per cent in favour of the treaty and 11 per cent against.
The rest of Leinster is almost as positive with 30 per cent in favour and 13 per cent against. Support levels drop in Munster where 17 per cent are for and 11 per cent against while in Connacht/Ulster 20 per cent intend to vote yes and 18 per cent no.
Urban voters are much more likely than rural ones to favour the treaty while men are more strongly in support than women.
In class terms the strongest support for the treaty comes from the better-off ABC1 social category where 30 per cent intend to vote yes compared with the less well-off and farmers where the yes vote is weaker and the no vote, among farmers in particular, is much higher than the average.
The key factor across all groups and different party supporters is that far more people are in the don't know category than in either the yes or no camp.
It indicates that the final outcome is wide open, despite the overwhelming endorsement of the treaty by the major parties and key interest groups.
Budget Priorities
The Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, should give overwhelming priority to putting more money into public services such as health and education in his forthcoming Budget, according to the poll.
When presented with a number options for the Budget a massive 58 per cent plumped for extra spending on public services.
The next highest priority, far behind on 15 per cent, was more spending on welfare payments.
Measures to reduce the tax burden came way behind in order of priority with 10 per cent opting to widen the bands and just 6 per cent saying the top rate should be cut from 41 per cent to 40 per cent.
Mr Cowen announced in his last budget that a cut in the top rate by 1 per cent would take place this year but it appears that the voters do not regard this as an important pledge.
On the issue of stamp duty, where Mr Cowen has been criticised in some quarters for not doing more, just 8 per cent say that a reduction in stamp duty for people moving home should be given the highest priority.
By comparison with an Irish Timespoll a year ago the numbers concerned about stamp duty have halved, indicating that Mr Cowen's decision to abolish the tax for first-time buyers has taken most of the heat out of the issue.
By contrast spending more on public services was by far the highest priority a year ago and remains the priority for by far the biggest number of voters.
In party political terms Labour and Green voters give the highest priority to the issue but it comes out on top across all parties and across all regions, classes and age groups.
Health Service
Only 13 per cent of people believe the health service has improved since Mary Harney was appointed and the Health Service Executive (HSE) was established about three years ago, according to the poll.
By contrast 53 per cent of people believe that the health services has deteriorated and 33 per cent think it has stayed the same over the period. In party political terms the only group of people where a majority thinks the health service has improved are PD supporters.
Fianna Fáil supporters are the next strongest in support for Ms Harney and the HSE with 21 per cent saying the service has improved, 39 per cent saying it has stayed the same and 40 per cent claiming it has deteriorated.
A majority of all other party supporters believe it has deteriorated with Fine Gael and the Greens being the most critical and Labour and Sinn Féin not quite as hard on the Minister.
In terms of social class the ABC1 voters are the most content with the health service while working-class voters and farmers are decidedly more unhappy with it.
In regional terms people in Dublin and the rest of Leinster are more content with the service than voters and Munster and Connacht Ulster.
There was an interesting response from people in different age groups with the over-65s, who use the health service most, more inclined to say things had improved since Ms Harney had taken over than any other age group.
By contrast the 18- to 24-year-olds who use the service the least were the least inclined to say that things had improved over the past three years.