Eighty five per cent of Irish farmers support the complete decoupling of farm payments from production even though 40 per cent believe it will cause their income to drop, a survey has found.
Some 1,200 farmers interviewed for the Teagasc National Farm Survey were divided almost equally on the impact of decoupling.
Forty two per cent believe controversial changes to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will have no impact on their income. A total of 40 per cent said their income would drop as a result of the move, while 10 per cent expect an increase in income.
Dairy farmers were most pessimistic about their income prospects, according to Teagasc, with nearly two thirds of them expecting a drop in income as a result of the CAP changes.
Mr Liam Connolly, head of the Teagasc National Farm Survey, said it showed a widespread lack of knowledge across all farming sectors of how the new regime will operate at farm level.
The survey also shows an accelerated decline in the number of dairy farmers. Around 15 per cent of dairy farmers said they would exit milk production over the next two years. Some 32 per cent said they will get out of the business in the following three to 10 years.
Teagasc economists have already projected a drop in the number of dairy farmers from 26,500 at present to 18,000 by 2012.
The survey shows that nearly 50 per cent of beef farmers plan to retain their existing stock numbers. Around 10 per cent plan to increase numbers while almost 40 per cent said they would reduce stock. The results also indicate an expected drop of 11 per cent in the national sheep flock.
Farmers plan to invest a total of almost €300 million next year, the survey suggests. However, Teagasc expects actual investment to be more than this.
"It should be noted that farmers always understate their planned investment," Mr Connolly said.
"While last year's survey showed a planned investment of €290m, actual investment in 2003 was almost €500m. While farmers stated that they would spend €70m on machinery this year, actual investment has exceeded €180m."
Addressing the Outlook in Agriculture conference in Dublin, Mr Connolly said trends for next year pointed to a small decline in farm incomes due to declining output and rising costs.