Just over a week ago John Edwards had difficulty filling a small student common room in Green Bay, Wisconsin where he was delivering his stump speech about two Americas, one rich, one poor; about jobs going overseas; and about his origins as a mill worker's son who became a trial lawyer. Conor O'Clery reports
He was at a low point in his quest for the Democratic nomination. Just that day a poll by Zogby International put the North Carolina senator 27 points behind John Kerry. Another by the American Research Group showed him 37 points behind with Howard Dean in second place. It looked like he would be pushed aside by the John Kerry juggernaut and left as road kill.
But in last Tuesday's Wisconsin primary the engaging southerner, whose drawl the Green Bay students could hardly understand, finished within six points of the aristocratic Massachusetts senator. When counting of the votes began, Edwards was ahead for a while, causing considerable heartburn to Kerry aides.
The exit polls later found that most voters had made up their mind only in the last four days. Many thought Kerry was safe and wanted to show their concern about jobs by backing Edwards. They also liked Edwards's upbeat performance in a Sunday night debate.
Just as voters came to like Howard Dean less the closer they looked at him, they seemed to like Edwards more as they focused on the candidates. He emphasised to them his modest origins, compared with the life of privilege into which Kerry was born.
John Edwards was raised in the small town of Robbins in North Carolina where his father, Wallace, worked in textile mills for 36 years. He started out at the mill too, but worked his way through North Carolina State University and then earned a law degree from the University of North Carolina. For 20 years he practised as a trial lawyer representing families against the insurance industry. He became wealthy by scoring big victories against corporate lawyers, winning over juries by his passion and likeability.
In 1998, Edwards showed his ability to beat the political odds when he defeated an incumbent Republican to win a Senate seat. Coming from so far behind in Wisconsin and defying expectations made the 50-year-old candidate look like a winner.
So when Edwards came to the much bigger Roune Arledge auditorium at New York's Columbia University last Thursday morning, he found it filled to capacity. He got a rock star welcome from students as he bounced in an hour late with his trademark red tie, boyish grin and fists extended in triumph.
He had something new as well, a fresh speech, tailored to New York. George Bush "thinks he will be able to exploit the tragedy of 9/11, coming here when it is convenient," he said, referring to the Republican party's decision to hold its convention in New York. "The president only knows one street in New York - Wall Street. What does he know about 125th Street, Flatbush Street, Jamaica Avenue?" Some 125,000 jobs had been lost in the city, and job loss was not just an economic issue but a moral issue. They should never allow American companies to go abroad "and have children make their products". The emphasis on jobs will play well in New York, especially upstate where many communities have been devastated by factory closings and emigration - Buffalo is said to be like Ireland in the 1980s. Edwards hopes to capitalise on his momentum going into Super Tuesday (on March 2nd), but for all his infectious optimism, the obstacles to his winning the nomination are still formidable.
Wisconsin was, when all is said and done, Edwards's 16th loss out of 17 contests. He has only won a single state, South Carolina, the one he was born in. His rival leads the delegate count by 497 to 188, with three quarters of the delegates still to be fought over. As delegates are parcelled out proportionately, Kerry can come second in big states and still stay ahead.
Edwards needs to win 60 per cent of the remaining delegates to overtake him. No one in the history of primary elections has come from so far behind to win the nomination. To have any chance, Edwards needs money, lots of it. The reason he was an hour late for the Columbia University event was that he was privately meeting fundraisers.
Edwards has collected more than $3 million since the Iowa caucus in January - $300,000 via the Internet in the last week - but Kerry has much more. Edwards's game plan is to win a couple of the big states on Super Tuesday, such as New York and Ohio, though he is up against the union support that Kerry has attracted. His tactic is to draw a distinction between himself and Kerry on trade, hammering home the fact that the Massachusetts senator supported the North American Free Trade Agreement, which unions blame for job losses to Mexico. Both have similar solutions - review all trade agreements and insist on stronger labour and environmental standards. Both voted for the war and against the $89 billion funding.
Kerry will emphasise his international experience, pointing out that Bush's record shows the Oval Office is no place to learn on the job in dangerous times.
Edwards will have to rely on his energy, his oratorical skills and his ability to connect with an audience to widen his appeal. He says he can attract votes from independents like he did in Wisconsin. After his appearance in New York, Edwards said that Howard Dean and Wesley Clark "took votes from me" and that he could still win the nomination if independent voters transfer their allegiance to him on March 2nd. If he survives he can go on to March 9th when he would have a chance of winning Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida because of his southern roots - though Kerry beat him in Virginia and Tennessee earlier this month. By staying in the race he is, for now at least, an insurance policy for the Democratic Party if the Kerry campaign stalls or implodes.
The conventional wisdom is that Edwards will not make it but that he will be offered the vice-presidential nomination by Kerry, and that if Bush wins in November, he will be in a strong position to challenge Hillary Clinton for the nomination in 2008. Kerry is said to regard his fellow senator as a cheeky upstart, but personal feelings will be easily set aside if the Boston brahmin feels he needs a Dixie partner to win the south. Ronald Reagan didn't like George Bush of Texas much either when picking him as a running mate in 1980.