POLITICS:2010 marked one of the lowest points in our 92-year-old democracy. In 2011, the electorate will give its verdict on Ireland's future
Monday, December 27, 2010A Supplement with THE IRISH TIMES III
THE YEAR that began and ended with ice and snow was one of the most difficult and traumatic in Irish political history. The abject failure of the Government and the financial institutions over a number of years culminated in the intervention of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to rescue the economy from collapse. It was one of the lowest points in our 92-year-old democracy.
The Fianna Fáil-Green Party coalition that was in power at the beginning of the year was still there at the end despite the seismic events that threatened at times to bring it crashing down. However, the Coalition’s days are numbered and it will be taken out of its agony before the New Year is very old.
Strangely, the first political sensation of the year had nothing to do with the Government. George Lee’s bombshell decision to abandon the Dáil after less than a year as a Fine Gael TD for Dublin South created a media frenzy and threatened to destabilise Fine Gael and its leader, Enda Kenny. However, as Lee went on a media blitz the party’s TDs decided to leave the leadership issue for another day.
In any case, the attention switched from Fine Gael and the Coalition was hit by a wave of resignations. First, Limerick TD Willie O’Dea was forced to resign from the Cabinet because of a court affidavit he had sworn after a row with a local Sinn Féin councillor. The two Coalition parties initially backed O’Dea in a Dáil vote but a tweet from Green Party chairman Dan Boyle triggered a sequence of events that led to his resignation from the Cabinet.
Then Waterford TD Martin Cullen resigned from the Cabinet for health reasons. That was not particularly surprising given his obviously excruciating back ailment. What was surprising was that he resigned from the Dáil as well, creating not only another Cabinet vacancy but the need for another by-election.
After that, it was the turn of the Greens to provide drama with the disclosure that the party’s junior minister Trevor Sargent had inappropriately lobbied gardaí in his constituency over an assault case affecting a constituent. He had to resign from ministerial office and there were doubts about whether the Coalition could survive after such a spate of resignations.
After Easter, the Government steadied itself and continued its effort to try and bring some stability to the economy. Ominously, though, the banking sector was a continuous source of worry, particularly Anglo Irish Bank which gobbled up taxpayers’ money at an apparently insatiable rate.
The Government, which appeared to be climbing off the ropes before the summer break, was thrown a lifeline with a sudden convulsion in Fine Gael. Responding to a poor rating in an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, which showed the Labour Party pulling ahead of it, a majority of the Fine Gael front bench rebelled and tried to oust Kenny as leader.
His opponents got the surprise of their lives when Kenny fought like a tiger and won a vote of confidence from his parliamentary party. Tactically Kenny out- manoeuvred his opponents at every turn and, with the vital support of Kilkenny TD Phil Hogan, he retained his position and the prospect of becoming Taoiseach. The skill and determination he showed in resisting the heave was a sign that he had some of the qualities required to do the job.
On the Fianna Fáil side there were mutterings among elements of the parliamentary party about Brian Cowen’s position, with some TDs believing that only a change of leader would save Fianna Fáil from a trouncing in the election, whenever it came. These mutterings came to nothing by the time the Dáil went into its summer recess and it seemed the Coalition would get a breather.
During the summer the IMF issued a report which queried the assumptions about economic growth made in the Government’s four-year budget plan announced the previous December. By the time the political season resumed in September, with a series of party think-ins, the economic outlook had darkened even more.
Arriving at the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party gathering in Galway, Brian Lenihan announced that the budget adjustment for 2011 might have to be greater than the €3 billion predicted the previous December. The Taoiseach did not appear to go along with that but the big media story from the meeting was not the economy but Brian Cowen's less than inspiring radio performance on Morning Ireland.
From that point on things went steadily downhill for the Government and the country. The interest rates on exchequer borrowing rose dramatically as the bond markets began to worry about the State’s ability to repay its loans. This was triggered by the deteriorating position of the banks which appeared to go from bad to worse as the Nama “haircuts” sliced into their already precarious resources.
The Coalition was under siege at home and abroad. It was forced to hold a by-election in Donegal South West as the result of a High Court action taken by Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin.
As that campaign got underway, it became clear that the European Commission was becoming ever more closely involved in the economic affairs of the country. Instead of a €3 billion adjustment for next year it emerged that it would have to be double that or even more and the four-year plan would have to come up with €15 billion in savings.
EU economics commissioner Olli Rehn came to Ireland in early November to talk to the Government and the Opposition parties about the need for radical action. The Government published its four-year plan containing the €15 billion target but the country’s position became even more precarious as international worries grew about the banking sector.
As the prospect of An EU/IMF intervention emerged the Government stoutly denied that it was on the cards and various Ministers went on to the airwaves to say it was not happening. In the event the Government ended up looking very silly when it was indeed forced to apply to join the “facility”.
The arrival of the EU/IMF team brought it home to the Irish public that their own political institutions had failed them but most people, judging by the last Irish Timespoll, were happy that membership of the European Union had at least saved us from going over the edge.
As the country was convulsed by the bailout issue, Sinn Féin stormed to victory in Donegal and subsequent polls indicate that the party, which is entirely hostile to the EU and the IMF, is on the rise.
The decision of the Green Party in the wake of the bailout to call time on the life of the Government helped to defuse public anger at what happened.
The electorate will have its chance before long to deliver a verdict on what should happen next.
