Palestine: Palestinian security services may not be able to counter threats to Israel's troops and settlers as they withdraw from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank in 10 days.
A study of the Palestinian security apparatus, set to be officially released shortly, warns that Palestinian services may not be able to prevent rocket and bomb attacks mounted by militants, civilian looting of settlements and infrastructure and interference from local armed militias and criminal gangs.
Palestinian forces may also fail to fill the vacuum once the Israeli army departs, risking renewed Israeli military incursions and attacks.
Palestinian performance could, however, be improved if there was more co-ordination and joint planning with Israel's forces.
The study, conducted by the Canadian and Dutch-funded Strategic Assessments Initiative, is the first by an independent team co-operating with the Palestinian ministry of interior and US co- ordinator Lieut Gen William Ward.
The report says Palestinian security agencies suffer from personalised control and rivalries, lack professionalism and have a shortage of equipment, vehicles, and weaponry (the ratio of men to sidearms is four to one).
The multiplicity of agencies have not yet been able to rationalise and institutionalise their functions or create effective command and control mechanisms.
Although Israel devastated the security infrastructure, targeted Palestinian forces and disrupted their activities during and after its 2002 invasion of the West Bank and Gaza, the survey shows that the civil police and half a dozen other agencies exhibit moderate to strong, as well as weak operational capabilities. These forces are more effective in Gaza than in the West Bank where it is more difficult to impose order due to Israeli closures, checkpoints, walls and fences.
In an effort to meet the challenge posed by Israeli withdrawal, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has tried to upgrade and unify its security services. A new evacuation force of 5,000 officers and men from various services has been raised and trained.
The PA is pressing Hamas to maintain the ongoing truce during the withdrawal and the ruling political party Fatah has called up 1,500 volunteers and recruited local clan networks to assist the security services.
Dr Jarat Chopra, head of the Strategic Assessments Initiative team, told The Irish Times, "Real changes have been made but they are overshadowed by the prospective messiness of the disengagement process."
