THE Government is now halfway through its term, and well pleased with itself. A booming economy naturally makes things easier - and just how much easier is currently evident. The estimates on Thursday showed how rich we are and how much each department has to spend next year. The National Development Plan on Monday will lay out the plans for capital expenditure, both structural and human, from £40 billion in EU structural funds over the next six years, and on December 1st the Budget will detail how our taxes will be raised and spent. There is now so much money in the Exchequer that the Department of Finance is taking the novel step of putting some away for a rainy day by diverting Telecom flotation funds into pensions.
With all this good news, it is no wonder the FF/PD Government is confident of going at least another two years out of the two-and-a-half left. The real danger is what damage might ensue from the never-ending tribunals. The recent John Ellis affair is a stark example of how the Coalition could be destabilised. Otherwise, things are good and there is no despondency in Government circles at last week's Irish Times/MRBI poll showing for the first time a majority of voters dissatisfied with its performance.
So what can we expect in the coming weeks? We could get a mini Cabinet reshuffle. There is increased speculation that David Andrews will resign as Minister for Foreign Affairs now that the North seems somewhat sorted. He has already announced he will not stand in the next election, and leaving Cabinet would allow the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern (who never likes moving people against their will, let along sacking them), an opportunity to update his front bench. The frontrunner for Andrews's job has to be Brian Cowen, who did well in the nurses' dispute, but it is believed Mary O'Rourke is also interested. A promotion to Cabinet also has to be an option for senior figures such as Seamus Brennan, Tom Kitt, Frank Fahey or Brian Lenihan. The millennium break is considered just the time for moves but will Ahern move?
Fine Gael, meanwhile, is seen as badly in need of a reshuffle, as its frontbench is viewed as overmanned and, with exceptions, less than impressive. If FF does it, FG will almost certainly follow.