EU: Members of the European Parliament are expected today to endorse a report that rebukes Turkey for its slow pace of reform on human rights, freedom of expression and relations with Cyprus.
They will express strong disappointment with Turkey's conduct in the year since the negotiations opened, setting the stage for a crisis during EU membership talks in Ankara this autumn.
The report says it "regrets the slowing down of the reform process, as reflected in persistent shortcomings or insufficient progress, in particular in the areas of freedom of expression, religious and minority rights".
Olli Rehn, the enlargement commissioner, has warned of a "train crash" in Turkey's EU negotiations when he delivers his annual progress report on October 24th.
The expected crisis will be a vivid demonstration of "enlargement fatigue", the growing unease at the eastward expansion of the EU, which played a large role in the rejection of the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands.
Many French voters believe that admitting a Muslim country, which would become the EU's largest member by the time it joined in 15 years' time, would be a step too far.
The "enlargement fatigue" will be on display tomorrow when Sergei Stanishev, the prime minister of Bulgaria, visits the European Parliament. Mr Stanishev is on a charm offensive to persuade the EU to allow his country to join on January 1st. However, many EU countries believe neither Bulgaria nor Romania are ready to join by that date.
The position of Turkey is even more uncertain. The report expresses particular concern at the treatment of the journalist Hrant Dink. Reporters without Frontiers said Dink was given a six-month suspended prison sentence for "insulting Turkishness".
Erkki Tuomioja, the Finnish foreign minister, warned over the weekend that the EU may punish Turkey over Cyprus. But he said the EU would try to avoid a crisis.
Elmar Brok, the chairman of the European parliament's foreign affairs committee, commented: "This is serious because the Cyprus question has not been resolved. But our report is constructive because it sets out which problems need to be resolved."